November 2019: Where We Are, The Presidential Primaries, and The Future

It is you, the individual citizen, who stays informed, attends meetings, makes financial contributions, votes, canvasses, demonstrates, phone banks, volunteers and does all you can to make a difference. And it does. On the local, state and national level.

This political blog was created as a civic response to the current presidential administration’s policies and legislation. Past posts included information and actions in preparation for the 2018 Congressional, State and Local elections. Today we start to prepare for the 2020 Presidential and Congressional elections.

The House of Representatives

The past
For Democrats to flip the House, they needed to gain 23 seats in 2018.  Any fewer and Republicans would maintain control.

2018 Midterm Election Results: Democrats gained 41 seats and won control of the House.

The present
There are 234 Democrats, 197 Republicans and 1 Independent in the House of Representatives. The Democrats hold the majority. In addition, there are 3 vacancies as of September 30 2019: Representative Duffy (R) resigned, Representative Chris Collins (R) resigned and Representative Cummings (D) passed away. A total of 435 seats.

The future
The 2020 House Race: All 435 U.S. House seats will be up for election.

The Senate

The past
For Democrats to flip the Senate, they needed to gain two seats. Any fewer and Republicans would maintain control.

2018 Midterm Election Results: Five incumbents—four Democrats and one Republican—lost their seats in 2018. The Republican Party expanded their majority by two and controlled 53 seats in the chamber. Democrats controlled 45 seats, and Independents in Maine and Vermont held two seats.

The present
There are 45 Democrats, 53 Republicans and 2 Independents (both caucus with the Democrats) for a total of 100 seats

The future
The 2020 Senate Race: Republicans will be defending 23 seats (including the special elections in Arizona and Georgia), while the Democratic Party will be defending 12 seats.

The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primaries

“……may (God’s) care still be extended to the United States; that the virtue and happiness of the People, may be preserved; and that the Government, which they have instituted, for the protection of their liberties, may be perpetual.”
President George Washington….8th Address to Congress 1796

Today, 223 years later, this democracy and its promised liberties have never been so tested. We are in the midst of the most crowded Democratic candidates field in history.  How will you decide who is the best candidate to support?

Inform

Updated July 9: 

The primaries were rescheduled in some states once the pandemic began. Updated information  on the dates they were originally scheduled for.

February 3

Iowa
(There is a lot at stake in terms of momentum and attention from donors and the news media as these are the first votes cast.)

February 11

New Hampshire
(Don’t be surprised if only a few candidates are still standing after the votes are counted here)

February 22

Nevada
(Another key early state with a high-turnout caucus, and the first one with a significant Hispanic population)

February 29

South Carolina
(This state will offer the first real indication of the candidates’ strengths
with black voters.)

March 3 Super Tuesday

(This day accounts for about 40 percent of total delegate allocation)
Alabama, American Samoa, Arkansas
California
(Because it has the largest delegate trove in the country, California is key )
Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina,
Oklahoma, Tennessee
Texas
(Texas has the second-largest delegate trove of the primary)
Utah*, Vermont*, Virginia, Democrats Abroad

March 10

Idaho 
Michigan
(Midwestern powerhouses like Michigan and Ohio will test the candidates’ appeal among suburbanites, African-Americans and working-class white voters. If the race is not decided on Super Tuesday, this could be a line of demarcation.)
Mississipi, Missouri, North Dakota, Washington

March 14

Northern Marianas Islands

March 17

Arizona
(If one candidate sweeps Arizona, Florida and Illinois, there will be immense pressure on the other candidates to exit the race.)
Florida, Illinois, Ohio

March 24

Georgia postponed its presidential primary until June 2.

March 29

Puerto Rico postponed its presidential primary until July 12. 

April 4


Alaska canceled in-person voting and extended its deadline for mail-in ballots until April 10.

  Wyoming canceled in-person caucuses, and extended its deadline for mail-in ballots until April 17 .

Hawaii canceled in-person voting, and extended its deadline for mail-in ballots until May 22. 

Louisiana postponed its primary until  July 11.

April 7


Wisconsin’s Supreme Court ruled on Monday, April 6  that the governor could not postpone the state’s primary over concerns about the coronavirus. Consequently it remained as originally scheduled.

April 28

(This may be last big delegate day of the race. If one candidate dominates every state this late in the primary, party leaders will likely move to get behind that person and seek to bring the race to an end. )

Connecticut postponed its presidential primary until August 11.

Delaware postponed its presidential primary until  July 7. 

Maryland postponed its presidential primary until June 2.  Most voters must cast their ballot by mail.

Pennsylvania postponed its presidential primary until June 2.

Rhode Island postponed its presidential primary until June 2.

New York canceled its already-postponed presidential primary after the Democratic presidential race was settled, but a federal judge ordered that the election go forward on June 23. 

May

 Guam, Kansas, Nebraska,  Oregon remained as originally scheduled. 

Indiana postponed its presidential primary until June 2.

West Virginia postponed its presidential primary until June 9

Kentucky postponed its presidential primary until June 23

June 2

 DC, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico,  South Dakota, and Virgin Islands
remained as originally scheduled.

July 11 & 12

Louisiana and Puerto Rico (see above)

August 11

Connecticut (see above)

Democratic National Convention
August 17-20

Democratic officials postponed the convention, originally planned for mid-July.  It will still be held in Milwaukee, placing a spotlight on a key Midwestern battleground state.

Republican National Convention
August 24-27

The Republicans are scheduled to hold their convention in Charlotte, N.C. Mr. Trump will deliver his convention speech in Jacksonville, Fla., on Aug. 27.

 

Respond

  • Watch the debates

Primary Debates

The upcoming Democratic primary debate will be November 20 in Georgia. In order to qualify for this debate, candidates will need at least 165,000 donors (up from 130,000) and at least 3 percent support in four approved polls (up from 2 percent). Ten candidates;  Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Yang,  Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttegieg, Amy Klobucher , Joseph Biden, Cory Booker, Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer  have qualified before the Nov 13 deadline (as of November 11).

The December debate date will be December 19 and cohosted by Politico and PBS. To qualify for the Dec. 19 debate, White House hopefuls must meet 4 percent support in at least four approved polls. In addition, candidates must receive contributions from at least 200,000 unique donors.

  • Link to the presidential candidate sites above and learn more about those you are leaning toward.
  • Attend Presidential candidates and your own Congressional member rallies and public events. Each presidential candidate will list activities and dates under the “Events” link. Your Congressional member o will post town hall meetings and fundraising events.  Ask questions.
  • Volunteer and Donate to Presidential primary and Congressional candidates.  Your Democratic House Representatives  are already beginning their campaigns for re-election in 2020, along with 12 Democratic Senators.
  • Follow the candidate(s) on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter
  • Become informed about policy issues such as Health Care & Medicare For All, the Climate Crisis & The Green Deal,  Closing the Wealth Gap, Criminal Justice Reform, Immigration,  Foreign Policy, College Debt, Guns, and Housing.  

It’s important to understand the complexity and details of each  proposal before deciding whether you’re for, against, or would support a modified version of.  Future posts will focus on these issues and the candidates’ positions.  

Upcoming Post

Health Care & Medicare For All

 

 

 

 

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November 2018: The Future Of This Republic

We are now on the eve of the 2018 Midterm Elections, the culmination of endless months, weeks and hours of volunteering, canvassing, phone banking and donations. Many motivated by the spirit expressed within:

Where you see wrong or inequality or injustice, speak out, because this is your country. This is your democracy. Make it. Protect it. Pass it on.         Thurgood Marshall

More Americans are taking advantage of absentee and early voting this year. In 22 states and Washington, D.C., advance vote counts have already surpassed those of the last midterm election.  Others are expecting long lines at polling sites this Tuesday November 6. Some states permit voters who are in line at closing time to cast a ballot, but that provision can vary by jurisdiction.

The House of Representatives

Democrats must net a 23-seat gain in order to take power in the House, and there are now 17 districts currently held by Republicans that are leaning slightly or strongly toward Democratic candidates.  

There are an additional 56 Republican-held seats that are vulnerable, rated either as toss-ups or as leaning slightly to the right. Republicans must win nearly 90 percent of those seats to keep control. Republicans could still keep control of the House by a slim margin, but they would have to win the overwhelming majority of competitive races in order to hang on.

Flipping The House includes an up-to-date analysis of each House race by the Cook Political Report and Nat Silver’s Five Thirty Eight. 

The Senate 

The GOP is heavily favored to hold or boost its 51-49 advantage in the Senate. Polling suggests Republicans have an edge to flip at least one Democratic seat, while the GOP either has a lead or is locked in tight races for all of the seats it will defend on Tuesday.

The Battle For The Senate provides up-to-date analysis of each Senate race by the Cook Political Report and University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball. 

Gubernatorial and State Legislature Races

There are 36 gubernatorial races this year. Up to 29 of the governors elected this year will have the power to veto the maps that local legislatures draw after the 2020 Census. These maps could impact the eventual makeup of the House of Representatives and, in turn, which bills become laws. Republicans currently occupy the governors’ mansions in more than 30 states.  

The outcome of 6,069 state legislative races will determine political control in the states. Voters will also decide on over 160 statewide ballot measures that will cover everything including finances, health, the environment and hot button issues.

This Land Is Your Land offers an  up-to-date analysis of each Governor race by the Cook Political Report and University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball. New York, My Hometown’s State Elections provides an analysis of New York’s issues and analysis of crucial state senate races.

The Nation In Brief

Last, but not least, A State by State Sizzling Hot Season, offers a snapshot of all competitive battlegrounds across the 50 states without poll analysis.

America votes on Tuesday, Nov 6.

 

The future of this republic is in the hands of the American voter.
                                                                             Dwight D Eisenhower

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New York, My Hometown’s State Elections (Updated Nov 15 2018)

“The genius of the United States is not best or most in its executives or legislatures, nor in its ambassadors or authors or colleges, or churches, or parlors, nor even in its newspapers or inventors, but always most in the common people.”      Walt Whitman

Inform

The Status of State Elections Nationwide 

Democrats are working hard  to gain back statehouses across the country during next week’s  elections.Republicans have consistently gained seats and control at the state level. They control both the House and Senate chambers in 31 states, while the Democrats are in control of only 14.  Republicans control 66 of the 99 state level legislatures, while the Democrats have control of 31. 

The present focus is on the five divided state legislatures where just a few seats in once chamber can give them the majority: Colorado, New York, Michigan, Maine and New Hampshire.  Other states to watch include Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida.   

The State of New York Elections 2018

Your state representatives have offices within the community so they can represent your concerns and needs.  Here is a sampling of issues (in alphabetical order) from New York State Senate and Assembly sites that are important to fellow New York residents : 

  • affordable health care, NY Health Act, prescription price fixing
  • cleaning up corruption
  • combating sexual harassment
  • disability rights
  • environment protection for air, water and soil, renewable energy, opposition to offshore drilling, protecting aquifers, clean energy that creates local jobs and protects the environment, wastewater treatment
  • gun laws, protection from gun violence
  • incentivizing homegrown industries
  • infrastructure improvements including public transportation like LIRR
  • LGBTQ rights
  • local development
  • lower property taxes, SALT relief
  • medical marijuana
  • opioid crisis
  • overdevelopment
  • public education
  • reproductive rights
  • senior citizen protection and support
  • skilled manufacturing and advanced technology jobs 
  • small business investments
  • sustaining small farms
  • veteran support
  • voting procedures

The New York State Senate

There are 63 seats in the New York Senate and all are up for re-election. Sixty-three Assembly districts are divided among 62 New York counties. Each of the senate districts have an average population of 307,500.  The New York State Senate will help you confirm your State Senate district and its candidates for office. 

Republicans control the New York State Senate with a narrow 32-31 majority with the support of Democrat State Senator Simcha Felder who caucuses with them.  Flipping a single net seat from red to blue in November would put Democrats in control of the entire state government for the first time since 2010.

Election Results: Democrats have won 37 seats. Three seats leaning Democrat but still undecided.  Republicans won 21 seats. Two seats leaning Republican, but still undecided. 

Respond

Volunteer if a Democratic candidate is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, and/or  fundraising. Participate in activities to Get Out The Vote.

Donate to all or a few critical senate and assembly races.  Many of us have donated to races outside of our own state. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount.

LIKELY DEMOCRAT (1)
District 9 County: Nassau Election Results: Democrat (62 vs 38)
+ Support State Senator Todd Kaminsky (D)

TOSS UP (4)

District 5 Counties: Nassau & Suffolk  Election Results: Democrat (54 vs 46)
^, ^^, + Support Democrat Candidate James Gaughran

District 7 County: Nassau Support Election Results: Democrat (55 vs 45)
^Support Democrat Candidate Anna Kaplan

District 8 Counties: Nassau & Suffolk Election Results: Democrat (55 vs 45)
^, ^^, + Support State Senator John E. Brooks (D)  

District 39 Counties: Orange, Rockland, and Ulster
Election Results: Democrat (54 vs 47)
^^Support Democrat Candidate James Skoufis

 

LEAN REPUBLICAN (3)

District 22 County: Kings Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
^^Support Democrat Candidate Andrew Gounardes

District 42 Counties: Delaware, Orange, Sullivan and Ulster
Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
^Support Democrat Candidate Jen Metzger  

District 50 Counties: Cayuga and Onondaga
Election Results: Republican (51 vs 49)
^Support Democrat Candidate John Mannion

LIKELY REPUBLICAN (5)

District 3  County: Suffolk
Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
+ Support Democrat Candidate Monica Martinez 

District 4 County: Suffolk
Election Results: Republican (52 vs 48)
^ Support Democrat Candidate Lou D’Amaro

District 6 County: Nassau
Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Candidate Kevin Thomas

District 40 Counties: Dutchess, Putnam and Westchester
Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Candidate Peter Harckham

District 41 Counties: Dutchess and Putnam
Election Results: Republican (51 vs 49)
^Support Democrat Candidate Karen Smythe

District 43 Counties: Columbia, Rensselaer, Saratoga and Washington
Election Results: Republican (54 vs 46)
Support Democrat Candidate Aaron Gladd

SAFE DEMOCRAT (29)
State Senator James Sanders, District 10 County: Queens
Democrat Candidate John Liu , District 11 County: Queens
State Senator Michael Gianaris, District 12 County: Queens
Democrat Candidate Jessica Ramos, District 13 County: Queens
State Senator Leroy Comrie, District 14 County: Queens
State Senator Joseph Addabbo Jr. District 15 County: Queens
State Senator Toby Ann Stavisky, District 16 County: Queens
Democrat Candidate Julia Salazar, District 18 County: Kings
State Senator Roxanne Persaud, District 19 County: Kings
Democrat Candidate Zellnor Myrie, District 20 County: Kings
State Senator Kevin Parker, District 21 County: Kings
State Senator Diane Savino, District 23 Counties: Kings, Richmond
State Senator Velmanette Montgomery, District 25 County: Kings
State Senator Brian Kavanagh, District 26 Counties: Kings, New York
State Senator Brad Hoylman, District 27 County: New York
State Senator Liz Krueger,District 28 County: New York
State Senator Jose Serrano, District 29 Counties: Bronx, New York
State Senator Brian Benjamin,District 30 County: New York
Democrat Candidate Robert Jackson, District 31 County: New York
State Senator Luis Sepulveda District 32 County: Bronx
State Senator Gustavo Rivera, District 33 County: Bronx
Democrat Candidate Alessandra Biaggi, District 34 Counties: Bronx, Westchester
State Senator Andrea Stewart-Cousins, District 35 County: Westchester
State Senator Jamaal Bailey, District 36 Counties: Bronx, Westchester
State Senator Shelley Mayer, District 37 County: Westchester
State Senator David Carlucci, District 38, Counties: Rockland, Westchester
State Senator Neil Breslin, District 44 Counties: Albany, Rensselaer
^Democrat Candidate Rachel May, District 53 Counties: Madison, Oneida, Onandoga
State Senator Timothy Kennedy, District 63 County: Erie

SAFE REPUBLICAN (19)
State Senator Kenneth LaValle (R) District 1 County: Suffolk
State Senator John Flanagan (R)  District 2 County: Suffolk
State Senator Andrew Lanza  (R) District 24 County: Richmond
State Senator Betty Little (R) District 45 Counties: Clinton, Essex, Franklin, St. Lawrence, Warren Washington
State Senator George Amedore, District 46 Counties: Albany, Greene, Montgomery, Schenectady, Ulster,
Joseph Griffo,District 47 Counties: Lewis, Oneida, St. Lawrence
Patty Ritchie, District 48 Counties: Jefferson, Oswego, St. Lawrence
James Tedisco, District 49, Counties: Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer, Saratoga, Schenectady
James Seward, District 51 Counties: Cayuga, Chenengo, Cortland, Delaware, Herkimer, Ostego, Schoharie, Tompkins, Ulster
Fred Akshar, District 52 Counties: Broome, Chenango, Delaware, Tioga
Pamela Helming, District 54 Counties: Cayoga, Monroe, Ontario, Seneca, Tompkins, Wayne
Rich Funke, District 55, Counties: Monroe, Ontario
Joseph Robach, District 56, County: Monroe
Cathy Young, District 57 County: Alleghany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqual, Livingston
Patrick Gallivan, District 59  Counties:  Erie, Livingston, Monroe, Wyoming
Chris Jacobs, District 60 County: Erie
Michael Ranzenhofer, District 61 Counties: Erie, Genesee, Monroe
Robert Ortt , District 62 Counties: Monroe, Niagara, Orleans

The New York State Senate Races above have been rated by City and State New York’s Updated Guide to the 2018 State Elections.

^Former President Barack Obama has added support to candidates and incumbents at the Executive Level, in addition to State Legislative Races.
^^Endorsed by The New York Times Vote For Real Change In Albany
+Endorsed by Newsday.

The New York State Assembly

There are 150 seats in the Assembly and all are up for re-election.  One hundred fifty Assembly districts are divided among 62 New York counties, .Each district has an average population of 128,652. Democrats have a  104-41 majority in the New York State Assembly.  

Election Results: Democrats won 107 seats, Republicans won 42. One still undecided.

The New York State Assembly  will help you confirm your Assembly district, and its candidates for office. . Here are all 150 New York Assembly District Candidates. Find out where your Democratic candidate stands on the issues that are concerning your community the most. It can be found on their campaign website,  i.e. Mary Smith For Assembly.

This Land Is Your Land post delves into the importance of state elections throughout the United States. As stated,  Incumbent Governor Mario Cuomo’s re-election seems to be secure.

Reflect

“My dream is of a place and a time where America will once again be seen as the last best hope of earth.”                                    Abraham Lincoln

 

 

Posted in Local and State Elections, Midterm Elections, State Elections, The House Race, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Comments Off on New York, My Hometown’s State Elections (Updated Nov 15 2018)

How States Can, and Will, Suppress The Vote

Voter suppression is the discouragement or prevention of citizens from voting and is a strategy often used to influence the outcome of an election.

Inform

One of the root causes of low turnout for midterm and general elections is the prevalence of restrictive voting laws. The modern GOP generally tries to make it harder to vote, because obstacles to voting tend to hit key Democratic constituencies—young people, low-income people, minorities—the hardest. 

In 2013, the high court struck down a key section of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. No longer would areas of the country with a history of discrimination in voting be required to pre-clear all changes in voting laws and procedures.

“Our country has changed,” wrote Chief Justice John Roberts for the conservative five-justice majority. Nearly 50 years after the Voting Rights Act became law, he said, instances of blatant race-based discrimination were rare. And now we are here.

Ten Ways to Suppress Voting

1.”Exact Match” Registration:

The “exact match” law requires election officials to flag and pause any voter registration application if the identifying information doesn’t precisely match the voter’s information in existing records, even because of something as small as a missing hyphen or a transposed number. Although voters are not barred from casting a ballot, they must take extra steps to verify their identities.

Legal Response:

 A coalition of civil rights groups sued Brian Kemp, Georgia’s secretary of state and Republican gubernatorial candidate, in his official capacity Thursday over a 2017 voting law that has hampered the registrations of more than 50,000 people — of whom approximately 80 percent are black, Latino or Asian American, according to the lawsuit, filed in a federal court in Atlanta.

2.  Voter ID

Voter ID is when a registered voter must show ID in order to vote.

States with No Voter ID Laws

California, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts,  New York, Maryland, Vermont,  New Jersey,
DC, Pennsylvania, North Carolina

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), 34 states have voter ID laws, which will be in force for the 2018 mid-term elections.

Examples of ID:

Photo ID: Voter ID card, driver’s license, state ID, military ID, passport, hunting or fishing license or other current or valid photo ID.
No-photo ID:  current utility bill or paycheck, government check or bank statement or other government issued document.

If a voter fails to show the photo ID that is asked for by law, states provide alternatives. These laws fit two categories, non-strict and strict. 

States with Strict Voter ID Laws

Requiring photo ID: Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Virginia,  Wisconsin
Requiring a no-photo ID: Arizona, North Dakota, Ohio

States with Non-strict Voter ID Laws

Requiring photo ID: Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Oklahoma,  Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas
Requiring a no-photo ID: Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire,  Utah, Washington, West Virginia

Who do these laws affect the most? 

Poor and Minority Communities 

Minorities are less likely to have driver’s licenses because they are more likely to be poor and to live in urban areas. If you can’t afford a car, or if you don’t need one because you take the bus or subway, you are less likely to have a driver’s license. Nor will they have the other forms of ID: passports, military IDs, concealed gun permits.  In addition, each  person is less likely to be listed on a utility bill.

Native American Voters

When Democrat Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota narrowly won her seat in North Dakota, Republicans changed a voter identification law in the state. They stopped allowing any voter identification that lists a post office box as an address. The reason for the change is that her support base was Native Americans and they use post office boxes as the U.S. Postal Service does not deliver to their communities.

Young student voters

Young student voters are not likely to have a drivers license as a smaller portion of students have a drivers license today than in the 1980s. They are also less likely to be listed on a utility bill.

Students attending out of state colleges  are also less likely to have other forms of ID commonly required by state laws.  Some states accept a student ID on its own, but several do not — even when it is issued by a public university and includes a photo.    In addition, states including Texas don’t allow student IDs, a policy that clearly hinders younger voters.

Elderly voters over 85

Elderly voters — like black and Latino voters — are more likely to lack photo ID than the voting population overall as they have stopped driving.

Legal Responses:

On October 9, 2018, the Supreme Court decided 6 to 2 to leave in place a North Dakota  law that requires residents to provide an ID displaying a residential address rather than a P.O. box number to vote.

In response, Native American voting rights activists in North Dakota have launched an audacious plan aimed at pushing back against a Supreme Court ruling that threatens the reelection of Sen. Heidi Heitkamp — and that could decide the fate of the Senate in the process.

The biggest win for voting rights advocates was in North Carolina in 2016,  where a federal appeals court panel unanimously threw out not only the voter ID requirements, but numerous other provisions that the court said were enacted with the intent of making it harder for minorities to vote. The judges pointedly observed that Republican leaders drew up the new laws in North Carolina only after receiving data showing that African-American voters would be the most significantly and adversely affected. “We cannot ignore the record evidence that, because of race, the legislature enacted one of the largest restrictions of the franchise in modern North Carolina history,” the panel wrote.

Similar rulings followed in Wisconsin, Ohio and South Dakota. And in Kansas, a state with a foreign-born population of 6.8 percent, courts have repeatedly rejected efforts by the Republican secretary of state to require voters to provide proof of citizenship to vote.

In July 2016 a federal court ruled that Wisconsin’s strict voter ID law was unconstitutional, and that an alternative to showing an ID, such as signing an affidavit attesting to identity, must be permitted.

A 2011 Texas strict photo ID laws has been in the courts since its passage. On April 10, 2017 a federal judge ruled, for the second time, that the law discriminated against minority voters. On June 2, 2017 SB 5 enacted non-strict, photo voter ID requirement.

3 . Early Voting Cuts:

Ohio cut a whole week from early voting, eliminating the “golden week” in which voters could register and vote on the same day. And Nebraska cut its early voting period from 35 days to no more than 30 days. 

Who does this affect?  Parents with full-time jobs who cannot afford to take unpaid time off work to vote. For many working parents, the ability to vote by mail or through early in-person voting on weekends is critical. However, a number of states, give residents neither the option to vote early in person nor the option to vote by mail (without satisfying certain requirements).

4. New requirements to register to vote:

Kansas passed a law that requires new voters to show proof of citizenship to register to vote. Virginia also required groups submitting 25 or more voter registration forms to register with the state, and reduced the amount of time to deliver the forms from 15 days to 10 days.

5. Limits on mail-in ballots: 

Arizona made it a felony to collect and turn in someone else’s mail-in ballot, even with that voter’s permission.

6. Provisional and absentee voting changes: 

Ohio passed strict rules that can invalidate absentee and provisional ballots if forms accompanying those ballots aren’t filled out in a very specific way.

7. Polling place closures:

Southern states, from Arizona to North Carolina, have closed down at least 868 polling places since the US Supreme Court struck down part of the Voting Rights Act in 2013. (The Voting Rights Act could have allowed the Department of Justice to stop these closures before, but not anymore.) These are only the closures tracked in about half the counties that were once covered by the Voting Rights Act due to their long histories of racial discrimination, so there have likely been hundreds or even thousands more closures nationwide.

8. Voter roll purges:

Several states have attempted to conduct sweeping purges of voter rolls, potentially undoing voters’ registration without their knowledge. Some of these purges — such as North Carolina’s and Florida’s — have been overturned by courts, but not all are even known to the public until it’s too late.  In June 2018, a divided U.S. Supreme Court upheld Ohio’s method for removing ineligible voters from its rolls, saying it does not violate any part of the National Voter Registration Act.

9. Reduction in state services: 

When Alabama, for example, was required to offer a free alternative to a driver’s license, it responded by closing Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) offices in areas with large black populations.

These are just some examples of an organized effort toward voter suppression in the United States.  Others include disinformation about voting procedures, transgender disenfranchisement, and inequality in Election Day resources. Many Americans who have been convicted of a felony but are now out of prison, on parole or on probation may want to vote, but many states have laws that expressly limit their voting rights.

10. Gerrymandering

The nation’s 435 House districts are adjusted after each decennial census. The goal, as required by the U.S. Supreme Court, is to make sure that, in states with more than one House member, the congressional districts have roughly the same number of people. (State legislative districts are redrawn as well.)  

At present, Republicans control 67 of the 99 chambers and control both chambers in 32 states. The party that controls two branches of state government can steer the direction of elections for a decade. Gerrymandering works by Party A “packing,” or cramming many of Party B’s voters into a few districts that it will win overwhelmingly, with many (wasted) votes to spare. The other technique, “cracking,” splinters Party B’s voters among multiple districts so that it can’t prevail in any of them. To counter the influence of politics, Some states have have shifted redistricting responsibility to an independent or bipartisan board or commission. Others have not.

Legal Responses:

This past February, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court has redrawn the map of the state’s congressional districts, overturning a Republican gerrymander that’s been used in the past three congressional elections.

Yet in June, the Supreme Court favored Republicans in other states accused of gerrymandering.

 

RESPOND

Take action through the League of Women Voters :” We actively oppose discriminatory voter photo ID laws, fight against attacks voter registration process and hold lawmakers accountable when they try to institute last-minute Election Day barriers. We work year-round to combat voter suppression through advocacy, grassroots organizing, legal action and public education. Our efforts have resulted in the protection of voting rights and ballot access for millions of Americans.”

Dissent, an online magazine published by the University of Pennsylvania Press, offers concrete straggles in  How To Fight Voter Suppression in 2018.

Donate to ACLU.  “Through litigation and advocacy, the ACLU is fighting back against attempts to curtail an essential right in our democracy, the right to vote. ​”

State lawmakers have had more latitude than ever to enact laws affecting whether, how and when one can vote in a federal election. Become involved in state elections. My prior post This Land Is Your Land tells you how.

REFLECT

“My story is a freedom song of struggle. It is about finding one’s purpose, how to overcome fear and to stand up for causes bigger than one’s self.”

                                                                    Coretta Scott King

Posted in Midterm Elections, Voter Suppression, Voting | Tagged , | Comments Off on How States Can, and Will, Suppress The Vote

Vote Now – Absentee, Vote by Mail, Early Voting and Voter Registration

“Our collective self-rule is established and fostered through free, fair, accessible, and secure elections through which the voice of every eligible American is heard.”

Election Day Tuesday November 6 

Inform

The structure and complexity of voting in America varies widely. States have moved past limiting your ability to vote on the day of the election.  Take advantage of these choices and vote now. I’ve posted how in each of the 51 states.  Please forward to friends and family members living in any of the states below.

Military Families and Overseas Citizen Voters

The Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP) works to ensure Service members, their eligible family members,  and overseas citizens are aware of their right to vote and have the tools and resources to successfully do so – from anywhere in the world. It provides these citizens with the tools for registration and absentee voting for each and every state.

Register To Vote

The deadlines are upon us. Volunteer for a registration drive  in your church, neighborhood or community center. Encourage and support children, grandchildren, and other young adults 18 or older to do the same. You must register if you’ve moved to a new state. The traditional way is in-person or by mail. The National Voter Registration Form can be completed and mailed to your local election office. Specific state directions are included for voter registration by mail. Many states offer other choices:

Online voter registration is used by multiple states in which a voter fills out a form via an Internet site, and that paperless form is submitted electronically to election officials.

Same-day voter registration enables voters to register and vote at the same time. Same-day registration is sometimes referred to as Election Day registration.

Automatic voter registration  Eligible voters are automatically registered to vote whenever they interact with government agencies (e.g., departments of motor vehicles). Eligible voters are registered by default, although they may request not to be registered.

Vote Now

Absentee Voting:  All states will mail an absentee ballot to certain voters who request one. The voter may return the ballot by mail or in person. In 20 states, an excuse is required, Some states offer a permanent absentee ballot list: once a voter asks to be added to the list, s/he will automatically receive an absentee ballot for all future elections. New Jersey is doing this presently. 

Vote By Mail: Twenty seven states and the District of Columbia permit any qualified voter to vote absentee without offering an excuse. Some states call this vote by mail, while others still refer to it as absentee ballot.

In Person Absentee Voting:  These states  allow a voter to apply in person for an absentee ballot ,  and cast that ballot in one trip to an election official’s office.

Early In-Person Voting Period: Any qualified voter may cast a ballot in person during a designated period prior to Election Day. No excuse or justification is required

Mail Voting: A ballot is automatically mailed to every eligible voter (no request or application is necessary). In-person voting sites may also be available for voters who would like to vote in-person and to provide additional services to voters. Three states mail ballots to all eligible voters for every election. Other states may provide this option for some types of elections.

Online Resources 

One-stop websites include Vote.org  whose toolset currently includes a voter registration tool, an absentee ballot tool, and tool that helps you verify your voter registration status, and a stand-alone election reminders too. Ballotpedia is an bottomless resource of voting and elections in America. VoteRiders is a non-partisan, non-profit organization with a mission to ensure that all citizens are able to exercise their right to vote. It informs and helps citizens to secure their voter ID.  Nonprofit VOTE provides official voting information directly from your state’s elections website.  Lastly, the National Conference of State Legislatures is a bipartisan nongovernmental organization (NGO) which provides absentee and early voting information.

Respond

Alabama 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration ,in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 15 days before Election Day (Oct 22) or up to and including Election Day at your County Elections office.

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required  Also has In Person Absentee Voting

Alaska

Register To Vote:
Has online registration. , in addition to by mail or in person. It also offers automatic voter registration. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day. (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early In-Person Voting Period:  15 days before Election Day: about Oct 22.  

Arizona 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person.  Deadline: 29 days before Election Day (Oct 8)

Vote Now:
Ballot by Mail No Excuse Necessary
Early In-Person Voting Period: begins 26 days before Election Day : about Oct 11. 

Arkansas

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (October 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required
Early In-Person Voting Period:  begins 15 days before Election Day: about Oct 22. 

California

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person.  Also has same day and automatic voter registration. Deadline: 15 days before Election Day (Oct 22) or up to and including Election Day at your County Elections office.

Vote Now:
Vote by MailNo Excuse Necessary
Early in-Person Voting Period:  varies by county 

Colorado

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person.  Also has same day and automatic voter registration. Deadline: In person up to Election Day. Mail and online deadline: 8 days before Election Day. (Oct 29)

Vote Now:

Mail Voting: A ballot is automatically mailed to every eligible voter (no request or application is necessary). The 22 day voting period starts October 15
Early In-Person Voting Period:  7 days before Election Day: about Oct 30.

Connecticut 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person.  Also has same day and automatic voter registration. Deadline: 7 days before Election Day. (Oct 30)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required Also offers In Person Absentee Voting 

Delaware 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: Fourth Saturday before Election Day

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required  Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

District of Columbia

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail and in person. Also has same day and automatic voter registration. In Person: Election Day .  Mail and online deadline: Received by 4:45 pm on the 21st day before  Election Day. (Oct 16)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early In-Person Voting Period: begins 15 days before Election Day: about Oct 22.

Florida

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person.  Deadline: 29 days before Election Day (Oct 8)

Vote Now:
Vote By MailNo Excuse Necessary
Early In-Person Voting Period:  begins 10 days before Election Day: about Oct 27. 

Georgia

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has automatic voter registration. Deadline: the fifth Monday before Election Day (Oct 8)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early In Person Voting Period:  begins the 4th Monday before Election Day: about Monday Oct 15

Hawaii 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day voter registration. Deadline: 29 days before Election Day. (Oct 8)  In person: up to Election Day

Vote Now
Vote By MailNo Excuse Necessary

Early In-Person Voting Period:  begins two Tuesdays before Election Day: about Oct 23.

Idaho 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day voter registration. Deadline: In person: up to Election Day. By mail and online: 25 days before Election Day. (Oct 12)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early In-Person Voting Period: begins the 3rd Monday before Election Day: October 22  or earlier based on county

Illinois

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day and automatic voter registration. Deadline: In person: up to Election Day. By mail and online: 28 days before Election Day. (Oct 9)

Vote Now:

Vote by Mail No Excuse Necessary  In Person Absentee Voting
Early In-Person Voting Period: Begins 15 days before Election Day: about Oct 22. 

Indiana

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 29 days before Election Day (Oct 8)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required
Early In-Person Voting Period: begins 28 days before Election Day or later based on county

Iowa

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day voter registration. Deadline: In Person and Online: 10 days before Election Day (Oct 27)  and by mail 15 days before Election Day. (Oct 22) If you miss these deadlines, you can also register to vote on Election Day

Vote Now:
Absentee Voting By Mail Ballot, No Excuse Necessary Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Kansas

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 21 days before Election Day. (Oct 16)

Vote Now:
Advance Voting Ballot No Excuse Necessary

Early In Person Voting Period:  varies by county from one week to 20 days before Election Day: from about Oct 17-30.

Kentucky

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 29 days before Election Day.(Oct 8)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Louisiana 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day. (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required
Early In Person Voting Period: begins 14 days before Election Day: about Oct 23 or later depending on county

Maine

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Has same day voter registration. Deadline: 21 days before Election Day (Oct 16)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Maryland 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day and automatic voter registration Deadline: 21 Days before Election Day (Oct 16)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early In-Person Voting Period: begins the second Thursday before Election Day: about Oct 25

Massachusetts 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has  automatic voter registration. Deadline: 20 days before Election Day (Oct 17)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required
Early In-Person Voting Period:  Begins11 business days before Election Day: about October 22

Michigan 

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required

Minnesota 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day voter registration. Deadline: 21 days before Election Day (Oct 16) or in person on Election Day

Vote Now:
Vote By Mail No Excuse Necessary Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Mississippi 

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required 

Missouri  

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person.  Deadline: the 4th Wednesday before Election Day

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required

Montana 

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Has same day voter registration. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)  or by Election Day if in person.

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary  Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Nebraska

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person.  Deadline: In Person 11 days before Election Day, (Oct 26) By mail and online: 18 days before Election Day (Oct 19)

Vote Now:
Early Voting Ballot Has In Person Absentee Voting

Nevada 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: In Person and Online: 21 days before Election Day (Oct 16) By Mail: 31 days before Election Day (Oct 6)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early in-Person Voting Period: October 20 – November 2

New Hampshire

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person Has same day voter registration. Deadline: In Person: Election Day, by Mail: 10 days before Election Day (Oct 27)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required

New Jersey 

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person.  Has automatic voter registration. Deadline: 21 days before Election Day (Oct 16)

Vote Now:
Vote By Mail Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

New Mexico

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 28 days before Election Day (Oct 9)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early in-Person Voting: Third Saturday before Election Day: October 20

New York 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 25 days before Election Day (Oct 12)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required  Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

North Carolina

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Has same day voter registration. Deadline: 25 days before Election Day (Oct 12)  or register and vote at the same time during Early Voting

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary.  Also offersIn Person Absentee Voting

North Dakota 

Register To Vote:
North Dakota is the only state without a formal voter registration procedure. You just need to bring proof of  ID and residency to the polls.

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early in-Person Voting Period:  October 29 – Nov 2 but varies by county

Ohio 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary  Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Oklahoma 

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Deadline: 25 days before Election Day (Oct 12)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Oregon

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has  automatic voter registration. Deadline: 21 days before Election Day. (Oct 16)

Vote Now:
Mail Voting: A ballot is automatically mailed to every eligible voter (no request or application is necessary).

Pennsylvania

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day.(Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required

Rhode Island

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Has automatic voter registration. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Mail Ballot ,  No Excuse Necessary

South Carolina 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day. (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

South Dakota

Register To Vote: Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Deadline: 15 days before Election Day (Oct 22)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary  Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Tennessee 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required
Early in-Person Voting Period: begins 20 days before Election Day: about October 17 

Texas 

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Deadline: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Ballot by Mail , Excuse Required
Early in-Person Voting Period: begins 17 days before Election Day: about October 20

Utah

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day voter registration. Deadline: In Person and Online: 7 days before Election Day (Oct 30) By Mail: 30 days before Election Day (Oct 7)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary
Early in-Person Voting Period: begins 14 days before Election Day: about October 23

Vermont

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day and automatic voter registration. Deadline: Election Day

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Virginia 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Deadline: 22 days before Election Day (Oct 15)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required Also offers  In Person Absentee Voting

Washington 

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day and automatic voter registration. Deadline: In Person: 8 days before Election Day By Mail (Oct 29) or Online: 29 days before Election Day.(Oct 8)

Vote Now:
Mail Voting: A ballot is automatically mailed to every eligible voter (no request or application is necessary). The 18 day voting period starts October 19. 

West Virginia  

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Has automatic voter registration Deadline: 21 days before Election Day (Oct 16)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, Excuse Required (a third party link as state site link is down)
Early in Person Voting 13 days before Election Day: about October 24. 

Wisconsin

Register To Vote:
Has online registration, in addition to by mail or in person. Also has same day voter registration. Deadline: In Person: Election Day, By Mail or Online: 20 days before Election Day (Oct 17)

Vote Now:
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Wyoming

Register To Vote:
Citizens must register to vote by mail or in person. Has same day voter registration. Deadline: In Person: Election Day, by Mail: 14 days before Election Day (Oct 23)

Vote Now
Absentee Ballot, No Excuse Necessary Also offers In Person Absentee Voting

Reflect

“We are not permitted to choose the frame of our destiny.

But what we put into it is ours”

                       Dag Hammarskjold

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The New York State Primary Perfecta

New York

“There is no place like it, no place with an atom of its glory, pride, and exultancy.” – Walt Whitman

 

We are on the eve of the New York State Primary elections, Thursday September 13, 6am – 9pm. 

Inform

Your governor and state legislature make policy decisions affecting health care, education, infrastructure, immigration, Medicaid, job training, criminal justice reform, gun safety, family leave, sexual harassment and assault policy, income inequality, a woman’s right to choose, marriage equality, discrimination on the basis of gender identity, and protecting the environment to name a few. This Land Is Your Land 

Which New York State Democratic candidate will represent your interests, values and beliefs  for the upcoming crucial November 6th elections?

Governor 

A governor is the chief executive officer and commander-in-chief of the state. He/she implements state laws and advances new policies and programs through executive orders, budgets and legislative proposals and vetoes. 

The Democratic Candidates for Governor are: 

Incumbent Andrew Cuomo……… endorsed by these Public Figures, Unions, Organizations and Political Clubs   

Democratic candidate Cynthia Nixon………..endorsed by other Public Figures, Organizations and Political Clubs

Lieutenant Governor

Official duties under the New York State Constitution is to serve as President of the State Senate, serve as Acting Governor if the Governor is out of state or has a disability, or become Governor in the event of the Governor’s death, resignation or removal of office. The person takes on other responsibilities assigned to them including duties concerning business, technology, environment and more.

The Democratic Candidates for Lieutenant Governor are:

 Incumbent Kathy Hochul ………endorsed by The Post  and Newsday

 Democratic candidate Jumaane Williams ……..endorsed by The New York Times   and Bernie Sanders

New York Attorney General

An attorney general’s job is to serve as counselors to their legislatures and state agencies and also as the “People’s Lawyer” for all citizens. There are a multitude of responsibilities including having to act as public advocates in areas such as child support enforcement, consumer protections, antitrust and utility regulation; propose legislation; enforce federal and state environmental laws; represent the state and state agencies before the state and federal courts; and handle criminal appeals and serious statewide criminal prosecutions.

It’s important to note it would also be the responsibility of the Attorney General to investigate Trump’s businesses and foundation.

The Democratic Candidates for Attorney General are :

Leecia Eve … endorsed by The Queens Tribune and The Times Union 

Letitia James …..  endorsed by Andrew Cuomo and  Newsday 

Representative Sean Patrick Maloney, running for both his Congressional District and Attorney General.

Zephyr Teachout ……  endorsed by The Buffalo News and The New York Times

The New York State Legislature 

 The legislature’s primary purpose is to draft and approve changes to the laws of New York. These changes are driven by a multitude of complex public policy issues including aging, agriculture, banking, children and families, corrections, economic development, education, energy, environment, health, housing, insurance, redistricting , small business, social services, transportation and veterans’ affairs .

New York State Senate 

All 63 New York State Senate seats are up for election. 

Who are the Democratic candidates for your State Senate district? The New York State Senate provides a quick and easy search engine to confirm your state senator’s name and district.  Ballotpedia provides a a synopsis of  the present state of the races, and a chart that lists the New York State Primary Candidates in each of the 63 districts. 

The key Democrat primary challenges are occurring against eight Democratic senators originally of the IDC (Indpendent Democratic Conference) who helped keep Republicans in control of the state Senate. The ten New York State battleground races are State Senate Districts 11, 13, 17, 18, 20, 23, 31, 34, 38 and 53.

The New York State Assembly

The Democratic dominated Assembly has 150 seats, all up for election.

Who are the Democratic candidates for your Assembly district? The New York State Assembly will confirm your Assembly district and your Assembly Member’s name.   

The  2018 New York State Assembly Primary Candidates have Democratic challenges in districts 18, 20, 30, 33, 39, 42, 46, 53, 60, 61, 68, 69, 71, 72, 74, 84, 85, 87, 90, 104, 107, 119, 121, 124, 136,  and 137.  Be sure to research your choices if you live in one of these districts.

Looking Forward: The Trifecta Effect

A party that has control of the governorship and state legislature is much more effective at both lawmaking and redistricting of congressional and state legislative seats after the 2020 Census. The Republicans have come into the midterm elections with 26 trifectas, and the Democrats have 8. There are 9 states where Democrats can win back legislative control  from the Republicans in November: Colorado, Minnesota, Maine, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and New York.

The Republicans of the New York State Senate now hold a one seat majority.  Flipping just one Republican state senate seat in November would put Democrats in control of the entire state government for the first time in eight years. The Democratic Legislative Committee is focusing on Nassau’s Senate District 7 in November where Democrat Candidate Anna Kaplan  is challenging incumbent Republican Elaine Phillips. 

The New York State Assembly is and has long been controlled by the Democrats.

Respond

Make an informed decision. Research the candidates for New York Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, State Senator and Assembly Member.

Vote this Thursday, September 13 in the New York State Primary, 6am – 9pm.  The New York State Board of Elections provides a link to find out if you are registered and where to vote.

Reflect

“Nobody will ever deprive the American people of the right to vote except the American people themselves and the only way they could do this is by not voting.”
                                                                                                   Franklin D Roosevelt

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Cutting The Federal Safety Net – Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid

“Our society must make it right and possible for old people not to fear the young or be deserted by them, for the test of a civilization is the way that it cares for its helpless members. ”  

                                                                                                                    Pearl S. Buck

Inform

In The Cross Hairs

Last year, Congress and President Trump made clear their fiscal priorities: Cut taxes, grow defense spending and don’t worry for now about the rising federal budget deficit. The House GOP plan last spring would have cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid to balance the budget. These three programs will continue to be in the cross hairs of cost cutting and budget balancing in the face of rising deficits.

The Power and Influence of Older Voters

According to the Census Bureau the baby boomers began turning 65 in 2011 and are now driving growth at the older ages of the population. By 2029, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 years and over, more than 20 percent of the total U.S. population will be over the age of 65. 

“Candidates of both parties need to think about—and talk to—older voters in their states and districts,” says Nancy LeaMond, AARP chief advocacy and engagement officer. “They are the nation’s most reliable voters. They are informed and engaged, and they make up their minds early. “   

“Both parties have to do well with the senior vote if they are going to do well in the general election,” says Stephen Ansolabehere, a Harvard University professor of government who has studied voter turnout for decades. Many of the most competitive House races will be in states with high senior populations, such as Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

While older people care about a broad range of issues, proposed changes in these three programs will drastically change their lives, and the lives of their families.

Will Social Security be cut?

Cuts to Social Security and Medicare are a reason to worry. Unless something is done to shore up Social Security, monthly checks could be cut by 23% by 2034. A report by Treasure Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that Medicare’s hospital insurance fund will be depleted in 2026, three years earlier than it forecast a year ago.  

The most immediate way Congress could make cuts to the Social Security Administration (SSA) is through the funding it provides in federal spending bills.  Eventually, Congress will need to address Social Security’s long-term fiscal health.

What’s less clear is when the legislature might tackle that debate, and which policies it might consider.  A GOP proposal to balance the budget included preventing people on Social Security Disability insurance from getting unemployment benefits.  In the past, options have ranged from privatizing parts of the program — a proposal that was rejected during the George W. Bush administration — to raising the age to become eligible for retirement benefits. Whatever path Congress ultimately pursues, Social Security advocates urge voters to make sure they get real answers from politicians.   

 Will Medicare be restructured? 

Washington always comes back to worrying about the deficit. And when it does, Medicare, which accounts for 15 percent of the federal budget, inevitably comes to mind. So when trimming the deficit again becomes an issue, “It’s quite possible that Medicare will be back on the chopping block,” says Tricia Neuman, Medicare expert at the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation.

One future possibility is Medicare beneficiaries will have to pick up a larger share of health costs. That means higher premiums, copays and cost sharing. Another alternative would be a voucher program where each beneficiary would receive a flat amount of money each year to buy health insurance. Others are promoting increasing age of eligibility to 67 or higher. This administration has proposed short term limited benefit insurance policies. But insurance companies can charge much higher premiums for seniors and don’t have to cover pre-existing conditions. 

Will Medicaid Be Severed?

Medicaid is a joint federal and state program that helps with medical costs for people with limited income and resources. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the survival of Medicaid will be in the hands of the state and federal officials we elect this fall.

Who is on Medicaid might surprise you. It could be your grandmother—one-quarter of Medicaid enrollees are elderly people or disabled adults.It could be the child next door. About half of Medicaid enrollees are children, many of them with special needs. The rest are adults without disabilities who earn too little to afford health insurance otherwise. Many of them are working: Six in 10 able-bodied adults on Medicaid have a job. And 78 percent of Medicaid recipients are part of a household with at least one person working full time. Many of those who don’t work are caregivers for other people.

The most persistent federal suggestion for reforming Medicaid is to turn it into a block grant program. Right now, as long as someone qualifies for the program, he or she is entitled to all the benefits covered. Under a block grant, states would get a fixed amount of money from the federal government. If Medicaid enrollees needed more care than the block grant paid for, states would have to make up the difference — or cut benefits or scale back who is eligible.

Supporters of block grants say it would get the entitlement program under control. Opponents counter that it would lead to millions of people being left without the care they need. 

Respond

Volunteer if a Democratic candidate  is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing.

Another option is to donate.  To all. To a few. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount. My prior A State By State Sizzling Hot Season post has been updated August 29 to include all primary results.

Contact your candidate at his or her campaign headquarters. Ask the following questions regarding proposed changes to our Federal Safety Net:

 On Social Security 

  1. Will you continue to fund Social Security and improve service?
  2. Are you committed to having annual cost-of-living adjustments keep up with inflation?
  3. Would you raise the age for full retirement benefits?
  4. Would you raise the cap on payroll taxes? (Workers pay into Social Security for the first $128,400 earned in 2018. Raising the cap would boost funding.)

On Medicare

  1. Do you believe Medicare benefits should be cut as a way to reduce the budget deficit?
  2. Do you favor converting Medicare to a voucher program?
  3. What changes would you make to insure that individuals continue to get promised benefits?
  4. Do you support expanding coverage to include hearing, vision, and dental care?

On Medicaid

  1. Will you promise not to cut Medicaid to pay for tax cuts or other spending?
  2. Will you oppose making Medicaid a block grant program?
  3. Will you support Medicaid guaranteeing long-term care services at home?
  4. Should Medicaid recipients be subject to work requirements?

Reflect

“It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped. ”  

                                                                                                        Hubert Humphrey

Posted in Midterm Elections, Social Security Medicare Medicaid, State Elections, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Cutting The Federal Safety Net – Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid

This Land Is Your Land – The Power of State Elections (Updated Nov 15)

“The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined.  Those which are to remain in State governments are numerous and indefinite.” – James Madison

Inform

The State’s Power

Your governor and state legislature make policy decisions affecting health care, education, infrastructure, immigration, Medicaid, job training, criminal justice reform, gun safety, family leave, sexual harassment and assault policy, income inequality, a woman’s right to choose, marriage equality, discrimination on the basis of gender identity, and protecting the environment to name a few. 

In addition, these races will have national implications with the next Census coming in 2020. In most states, the legislature redraws congressional districts, while the governor has veto power. Past Republican gerrymandering  manipulated the boundaries of an electoral constituency to favor their party in future Congressional elections. 

2018 Gubernatorial Elections

A Democratic Deficit I:  Heading into the elections there are 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors and 1 Independent governor. 

There will be 36 gubernatorial elections in 2018.  9 are Democrat (7 are not up for re-election) , 1 is an Independent and 26 are Republican (7 are not up for re-election). 

I’ve added the Democratic candidates for the governor races that are considered competitive to the prior post A State By State Sizzling Hot Season.

2018 State Legislature Elections

Eighty-seven of 99 state legislative chambers are holding general elections for 6,070 seats—roughly 82 percent of the 7,383 state legislative seats in the country this year. 

A Democratic Deficit II:  At present, Republicans control 67 of the 99 chambers and control both chambers in 32 states. Democrats control 32 chambers, and both chambers in 14 states. Only four states have divided control of their legislatures. 

For purposes of both lawmaking and redistricting of congressional and state legislative seats, both parties strive for “trifecta” (a run of 3) control of governorships and state legislatures. Right now, Republicans have 26 trifectas, an extremely high number, while Democrats enjoy only 8. 

Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia hold legislative elections in odd-numbered years.  Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and South Carolina hold elections this year only for their lower chambers. 

If you are not a citizen of the 4 states above, you can become  involved in electing a Democratic candidate for the upper and lower chamber of your statehouse this year. Find out who represents you  in your state legislature, along with the district you live in. Ballotpedia offers information on the incumbents and candidates running this year.

Competitive Gubernatorial Races 2018

Cook 2018 Governor Race ratings, updated Oct 26.. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball 2018 Governor updated Nov 5. 

Cook Solidly Democrat (3):
California Democrat Gavin Newsom(D), Hawaii Incumbent Gov. David Ige (D), New York Incumbent Gov. Mario Cuomo (D)
Election Results: All Democrat

Sabatos Safe Democrat (4:)
California (D), Hawaii (D), New York (D), Pennsylvania Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf (D)
Election Results: All Democrat

*Cook Likely Democrat (3):
 Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner (R), Minnesota Open (D), Pennsylvania (D)
Election Results: All Democrat

*Sabatos Likely Democrat (3) :
 Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner (R), Michigan Open (R), Rhode Island  Incumbent Democratic Governor Gina Raimondo
Election Results: All Democrat

*Cook Leans Democrat (4):
Colorado Open (D),  Michigan Open (R), New Mexico Open (R)
Election Results: All Democrat

*Sabatos Leans Democrat (12) :
Colorado Open (D), Connecticut Open (D), Florida Open (R),Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R), Kansas, Open (R), Maine Open (R), Minnesota Open (D), Ohio Open (R), Nevada Open (R), New Mexico Open (R), Oregon Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R)
Election Results: All Democrat except for Florida (to be determined), Iowa, and Ohio

*Cook Toss Up (12): 
Connecticut Open (D),  Florida Open (R),  Georgia Open (R), Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R), Kansas, Open (R), Maine Open (R), Nevada Open (R),  Ohio Open (R), Oklahoma,Open (R), Oregon Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown (D),  South Dakota Open (R), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R)
Election Results: All Democrat except for Florida (to be determined), Ohio, Oklahoma, and South Dakota

*Sabatos Toss Up (1)
 Georgia Open (R),
Election Results: To Be Determined. 

*Cook Leans Republican (2):
Alaska Governor Bill Walker (I), New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R)
Election Results: All Republican

*Sabatos Leans Republican (3):
Alaska Governor Bill Walker (I), New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R), Oklahoma,Open (R),South Dakota Open (R)
Election Results: All Republican

**Cook Likely Republican (4): Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R), Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R),  South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster (R), Tennessee Open (R)
Election Results: All Republican 

**Sabatos Likely Republican (2):
 Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R), Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R)
Election Results: All Republican

Cook Solidly Republican (8):
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska,  Texas, Vermont, Wyoming
Election Results:All Republican

Sabatos Safe Republican (10) :
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, South Carolina,  Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming
Election Results:All Republican

Key

*Focus Group One:  If you need to limit your time or financial donation, these are the Democrat candidates who can use it.

** Focus Group Two:  These seats among the likeliest to come into play if there is a surge in Democratic voting.

Respond

  Volunteer if a Democratic candidate is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing.

     What can we do if limited with time? Donate  No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount

Reflect

“Let us never forget that government is ourselves and not an alien power over us. The ultimate rulers of our democracy are not a President and senators and congressmen and government officials, but the voters of this country. ”

Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

 

 

Posted in Governorships, Local and State Elections, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Comments Off on This Land Is Your Land – The Power of State Elections (Updated Nov 15)

A State by State Sizzling Hot Season (updated Nov 13)

The crucial Congressional and State races are days away.    Herein lies a succinct list of Democratic Candidates for Senator, Congressional Representative and Governor who need your help in competitive races across our nation.

Inform

Navigate to the prior updated posts of  Flipping The House The Battle For The Senate and This Land Is Your Land – The Power of State Elections for more specific details of the races for Governor, Senator and Congressional Representatives.

The Democrats and candidates  not listed below are presently considered Solidly Republican or Solidly Democrat according to the Cook 2018 House Race Ratings updated Oct 30 , Cook 2018 Senate Race Ratings updated Oct 26, and the Cook 2018 Governor Races updated Oct 26. Another political analyst cited was Sabatos Crystal Ball’s  Senate Race Ratings Table  (updated Oct 31), and Gubernatorial Ratings  (updated Oct 31). Lastly, the Five Thirty Eight 2018 House Forecast (updated Nov 1) was also cited.

Respond

Attend  fall events for each candidate in your neighborhood, county, and/or state.  Meet the candidate or incumbent and share your concerns.  Their website will provide information on where and when. Each can be found at county fairs, celebrations, and picnics.

Volunteer if a Democratic candidate is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, and/or  fundraising. Participate in activities to Get Out The Vote.

Share this list with friends and family living throughout this great nation.   Post this list or blog on any group site you belong to,  and get the word out.

Donate to all or a few crucial House, Senate and Governor races.  Many of us have donated to races outside of our own state. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount. Remember to make it a one-time donation. A one-time campaign donation might institute a flurry of emails from that candidate.  If you don’t want that, just “unsubscribe” at the bottom of the email to remove your name from their list. 

Positive and Negative Motion 

Many  races have shown marked improvement as a result of your donations and the hard work of volunteers. This means they have moved from being considered a solid or likely Republican district to a Toss Up or became more a Democratic leaning or likely district. Despite this improvement, nothing is definite. It’s important to note that many many races still remain a “toss up” and your participation and/or donation can make a difference.

Negative Motion Updated Oct 12: North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp needs your help now. Her race is leaning Republican as a result of her vote against Kavanaugh.

The Asterisk Key:

*Focus Group I   If you need to limit your time or financial donation, these are the Democratic candidates who can use it.

**Focus Group II  These seats among the likeliest to come into play if there is a surge in Democratic voting. Support if you can. 

Alaska

The House Race

**Don Young, Alaska (Lone Seat)
Support Democrat Alyse Galvin

The Race For Governor

*Governor Bill Walker (I)
Support Democrat Mark Begich

 

Arizona

The Senate Race

*Open
Support Democrat Kristen Sinema 

The House Race

* O’Halleran, Ariz. 1
Support Democrat Tom O’Halleran

*Open Ariz. 2
Support Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick

*David Schweikert, Ariz. 6
Support Democrat Anita Malik

The Race For Governor

**Governor Doug Ducey (R)
Support Democrat David Garcia

Arkansas

The House Race

*French Hill, Ark. 2
Support Democrat Clarke Tucker

California

The House Race

*Tom McClintock, Calif. 4
Support Democrat  Jessica Morse 

*Ami Beri, Calif. 7
Support Democrat Ami Bera

*Jeff  Denham, Calif. 10
Support Democrat Josh Harder

*David Valadao, Calif. 21
Support Democrat TJ Cox

*Steve Knight, Calif. 25
Support Democrat Katie Hill

*Open, Calif. 39
Support Democrat Gil Cisneros

*Mimi Walters, Calif. 45
Support Democrat Katie Porter

*Dana Rohrabacher, Calif. 48
Support Democrat Harley Rouda

*Open, Calif. 49
Support Democrat Mike Levin

*Hunter, Calif. 50
Support Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar 

Colorado

The House Race

*Scott Tipton, Colo. 3
Support Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush

*Mike Coffman, Colo. 6
Support Democrat Jason Crow

The Race For Governor

*Open (D)
Support Democrat Jared Polis

Connecticut

The Race For Governor

*Open (D)
Support Democrat Ned Lamont

Florida

The Senate Race

*Support Democrat Senator Bill Nelson

The House Race

**Open , Fla. 6
Support Democrat Nancy Soderberg

*Murphy Fla.7
Support Democrat Stephanie Murphy

**Open, Fla. 15
Support Democrat Kristen Carlson

**Vern Buchanan, Fla 16
Support Democrat David Shapiro

 *Brian Mast, Fla. 18
Support Democrat Lauren Baer

*Mario Diaz-Balart, Fla. 25
Support Democrat Mary Barzee Flores

*Carlos Curbelo, Fla. 26
Support Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

*Open, Fla. 27
Support Democrat Donna Shalala

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Andrew Gillum

Georgia

The House Race

*Karen Handel, Ga. 6
Support Democrat Lucy McBath

**Rob Woodall, Ga. 7
Support Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Stacey Abrams

Illinois

The House Race

*Peter Roskam, Ill. 6
Support Democrat Sean Casten

*Mike Bost, Ill. 12
Support Democrat Brendan Kelly

*Rodney Davis, Ill. 13
Support Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londriga

*Randy Hultgren, Ill. 14
Support Democrat Lauren Underwood

The Race For Governor

*Governor Bruce Rauner (R)
Support Democrat JB Pritzger

Indiana

The Senate Race

*Support DemocratSenator Joe Donnely

The House Race

**Jackie Walorski Ind. 2
Support Democrat Mell Hall

*Trey Hollingsworth, Ind. 9
Support Democrat Liz Watson

Iowa

The House Race

*Rod Blum, Iowa 1
Support Democrat Abby Finkenauer

*David Young, Iowa 3
Support Democrat Cindy Axne

**King, Iowa 4
Support Democrat JD Scholten

The Race For Governor

*Governor Kim Reynolds (R)
Vote for Democrat Fred Hubbell

Kansas

The House Race

*Open, Kan. 2
Support Democrat Paul Davis

*Kevin Yoder, Kan. 3
Support Democrat Sharice Davids

The Race For Governor

*Governor Jeff Coyler (R)
Support Democrat Laura Kelly

Kentucky

The House Race

*Andy Barr, Ky. 6
Support Democrat Amy McGrath

Maine

The House Race

*Bruce Poliquin, Me. 2
Support Democrat Jared Golden

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Janet Mills

Maryland

The Race For Governor

**Governor Larry Hogan (R)
Support Democrat Ben Jealous

Michigan

The House Race

* Jack Bergman, Mi 1
Support Democrat Matthew Morgan 

**Fred Upton, Mich. 6
Support Democrat Matt Longjohn

*Tim Walberg, Mich. 7
Support Democrat Gretchen Driskell

*Mike Bishop, Mich. 8
Support Democrat Elissa Slotkin

*Open, Mich. 11
Support Democrat Haley Stevens

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Gretchen Whitmer

Minnesota

The House Race

*Open, Minn. 1
Support Democrat Dan Feehan

*Jason Lewis, Minn. 2
Support Democrat Angie Craig

*Erik Paulsen, Minn. 3
Support Democrat Dean Phillips

*Peterson, Minn.7
Support Democrat Collin Peterson

*Open, Minn. 8
Support Democrat Joe Radinovich

The Race For Governor

*Open (D)
Support Democrat Tim Walz

Mississippi

The Senate Race

Open (appointed Senator Cindy Hyde Smith)
##,  >>Support Democrat Mike Epsy

Missouri

The Senate Race

*Support DemocratSenator Claire McCaskill

The House Race

**Ann Wagner, Mo 2
Support Democrat Cort VanOstran

Montana

The Senate Race

*Support Democrat Senator John Tester

The House Race

**Greg Gianforte, Mont. 1
Support Democrat Kathleen Williams

Nebraska

The Senate Race

*Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fisher, Nebraska
Support Democrat Jane Raybould

The House Race

*Don Bacon, Neb. 2
Support Democrat Kara Eastman

Nevada

The Senate Race

*Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller
Support Democrat Jacky Rosen

The House Race

*Danny Tarkanian, Nev 3
Support Democrat Susie Lee

*Open, Nev 4
Support Democrat Stephen Horsford

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Steve Sisolak

New Hampshire

The House Race

*Open , NH 1
Support Democrat Chris Pappas

The Race For Governor

**Governor Chris Sununu (R)
Support Democrat Molly Kelly

New Jersey

 The House Race

*Open, N.J. 2
Support Democrat Jeff Van Drew

*Tom MacArthur, N.J. 3
Support Democrat Andy Kim

*Gottheimer, N.J. 5
Support Democrat Josh Gottheimer

*Leonard Lance, N.J. 7
Support Democrat Tom Malinowski.  An exceptional candidate representing my family, friends, and colleagues in New Jersey.

*Rodney Frelinghuysen, N.J. 11
Support Democrat Mikie Sherrill

New Mexico

 The House Race

* Open, N.M 2
Support Democrat Xochitl Torres Small

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham

New York

The House Race

*Lee Zeldin, N.Y. 1
Support Democrat Perry Gershon

*Peter King, N.Y. 2
Support Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley An exceptional candidate representing my family and friends of Long Island.

*Dan Donovan, N.Y. 11
Support Democrat Max Rose

*John Faso, N.Y. 19
Support Democrat Antonio Delgado

*Claudia Tenney, N.Y. 22
Support Democrat Anthony Brindisi

*John Katko, N.Y. 24
Support Democrat Dana Balter

*Chris Collins, N.Y. 27
Support Democrat Nate McMurray 

North Carolina

The House Race

**George Holding, N.C. 2
Support Democrat Linda Coleman

*Richard Hudson, N.C. 8
Support Democrat Frank McNeill

*Open, N.C. 9
Support Democrat Dan McCready

*Ted Budd, N.C. 13
Support Democrat Kathy Manning

North Dakota

The Senate Race

*Support Democrat  Senator Heidi Heitkamp

Ohio

The House Race

*Steve Chabot, Ohio 1
Support Democrat Aftab Pureval

**Michael Turner, Ohio 10
Support Democrat Theresa Gasper

*Pat Tiberi , Ohio 12
Support Democrat Danny O’Connor

**David Joyce, Ohio 14
Support Democrat Betsy Radar

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Richard Cordray

Oklahoma

The Race For Governor

**Open (R)
Support Democrat Drew Edmonson

Oregon

The Race For Governor

*Support Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown 

Pennsylvania

The House Race

**Brian Fitzpatrick, Pa. 1
Support Democrat Scott Wallace

* Vacant, Pa. 5
Support Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon

*Open Pa. 6
Support Democrat Chrissy Houlaham

*Vacant, Pa. 7
Support Democrat Susan Wild

*John Chrin , Pa. 8
Support Democrat Matt Cartwright

# Perry, Pa10
Support Democrat George Scott

** Open, Pa 14
Support Democrat Bibiana Boerio

*Mike Kelly, Pa. 16
Support Democrat Ronald Di Nicola

*Keith Rothfus, Pa 17
Support Democrat Conor Lamb

The Race For Governor

*Support Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf

Rhode Island

The Race For Governor

*Support Incumbent Democratic Governor Gina Raimondo 

South Carolina

The House Race

**Open, S.C. 1
Support Democrat Joe Cunningham

The Race For Governor

**Governor Henry McMaster (R)
Support Democrat James Smith

Tennessee

The Senate Race

*Open
Support Democrat Phil Bredesen

The Race For Governor

**Open (R)
Support Democrat Karl Dean

Texas

The Senate Race

Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz, Texas
*Support Democrat Betto O’Rourke

The House Race

**Open, Tex 2
Support Democrat Todd Litton

*John Culberson, Tex. 7
Support Democrat Lizzy Pannill Fletcher

*Lamar Smith, Tex. 21
Support Democrat Joseph Kopser

**Pete Olsen, Tex 22
Support Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni

*Will Hurd, Tex. 23
Support Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones

**Marchant, Tex 24
Support Democrat Jan McDowell

**John Carter, Tex. 31
Support Democrat M.J. Heger

*Pete Sessions, Tex. 32
Support Democrat Collin Allred

Utah

The House Race

*Mia Love, Utah 4
Support Democrat Ben McAdams

Virginia

The House Race

*Scott Taylor, Va. 2
Support Democrat Elaine Luria

**Open, Va. 5
Support Democrat Leslie Cockburn

*Dave Brat, Va. 7
Support Democrat Abigail Spanberger

*Barbara Comstock, Va. 10
Support Democrat Jennifer Wexton

Washington

The House Race

*Jaime Herrera Beutler, Wash. 3
Support Democrat Carolyn Long

*Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Wash. 5
Support Democrat Lisa Brown

*Open, Wash. 8
Support Democrat Kim Schrier

West Virginia

The House Race

**Open, W.Va 3
Support Democrat Richard Ojeda

Wisconsin

The House Race

**Open, Wis. 1
Support Democrat Randy Bryce

*Glenn Grothman, Wis. 6
Support Democrat Dan Kohl

The Race For Governor

*Governor Scott Walker (R)
Support Democrat Tony Evers

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) recently updated their focus to include the Solidly Democrat Congressional District races of Arizona 9, Colorado 2, Hawaii 1, Illinois 4, Maine 3, Maryland 6, Michigan 9 and 13, Minnesota 5, New Mexico 1, New York 25,  Pennsylvania 4 and Texas 16 and 29.

It will also focus on the Solidly Republican Congressional District races of Alabama 2 and  5, California 1 and 22, Florida 12, Indiana 9,  Maryland 1, Michigan 1, New Jersey 4, New York 21 and 23, Ohio 2, 7 and 15, Pennsylvania 9, 11 and 15,  West Virginia 2, and Wisconsin 7.

 

Posted in Congress, Governorships, Midterm Elections, The House Race, The Senate Race, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Comments Off on A State by State Sizzling Hot Season (updated Nov 13)

The Battle For The Senate (updated November 15)

Inform

     Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with two independents caucusing with Democrats. With Vice President Pence as the tie-breaker in the Senate, Democrats need to flip a net of two seats in 2018 to win back the majority.

The Battle is Formidable

     Democrats are defending 26 seats — 10 of which are in states that President Trump carried — while Republicans have nine seats on the ballot, and only one (Nevada) in a state that Hillary Clinton carried. 

   In 2018, the numbers clearly work for the Republicans in Senate elections to retain and even expand their majority.

     Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver’s Political Calculus (updated Nov 1 ) estimates that Democrats have a 14.6% chance of winning control of the Senate .

  

Its Theatre 

 Democrats need to keep 26 seats.

 If you analyze the data below, 15 Senate seats are considered to be safely or solidly Democrat. That means 11 seats are in play.

Six Democratic Senators are fighting for their seats:  Florida*, Indiana*, Missouri*, Montana*, North Dakota* and West Virginia*.

Five additional seats were not considered solid or safe originally. But now polls show that Democratic support is surging in 4 of the 5:  Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin*. Recently,  New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez has slipped down to a toss up by the Cook Rating. 

 Democrats need to flip 2 seats, while keeping all of the above.

 Republicans are striving to keep 9 seats. Four Republican seats are considered to be safely or solidly Republican. 

This has left 5 Republican Senators fighting for their seats:  Arizona*, Mississippi*, Nevada*, Tennessee* and Texas*. 

*Though there are 35 Senate seats up for re-election, the bulk of so-called outside spending is being deployed in the most competitive races. The pace of spending is on track to set a record, in part because of recent changes in campaign finance rules that allow for unlimited spending by hundreds of political groups and a handful of wealthy individuals.

In the end, Democrats would have to keep all of the seats above and flip 2 Republican seats to win back Senate control.

The latest Cook Political Report 2018 Senate Race Ratings  (updated Oct 26) codes the Senate seats’ vulnerability.  The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.

     Sabatos is  a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center For Politics.  Sabatos Crystal Ball’s Senate Race Ratings Table  (updated Nov 5) was another way to analyze each seat’s risk. 

   Respond

     Volunteer if a Democratic candidate is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing. Post this list on any Indivisble group site you belong to across the nation to get the word out.

     What can we do from afar?  Donate. To all. To a few. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount

     Forward this list to friends and family across the country.  Don’t exclude citizens over 60 who accounted for 39.4 percent of all voters- the largest single voting bloc in the last midterm election.  Second were people between 45 and 59, who made up 30.3 percent of voters. Offer to support an online donation on anyone’s behalf who is technology shy. They can send you a check.

The Democratic Front

5 Endangered Republican Seats  The objective is to flip each seat from Republican to Democrat in each of these states. I’ve provided a link to each Democratic candidate’s website where you can gather information about his or her priorities, values, and beliefs. These five Democratic candidates need all the support you can give to get them elected:  

Nevada   
Senator Dean Heller
*, + Support Democrat Jacky Rosen
Election Results: Democrat (50.4 vs 45.4)

Arizona
Open
*, + Support Democrat Kristen Sinema
Election Results: Democrat (50 vs 48)

Tennessee
Open  
 *, # Support Democrat Phil Bredesen 
Election Results: Republican (54.7 vs 43.9)

Mississippi
Open (appointed Senator Cindy Hyde Smith)
#,  ## Support Democrat Mike Epsy 

Election Results: To Be Determined  Runoff  Nov 27

Texas
Senator Ted Cruz, Texas
*, # Support Democrat Betto O’Rourke  

Election Results: Republican (50.9 vs 48.3)

The Democrats’ Defensive Position

Three Endangered Democrats who might lose their seat  Republicans are focusing on flipping these districts. We must support these 3 endangered, incumbent Democrats.

Florida
*, + Support Senator Bill Nelson
Election Results: To Be Determined

Indiana
*, # Support Senator Joe Donnely
Election Results: Republican (51 vs 45.1)

Missouri
*, # Support Senator Claire McCaskill

Election Results: Republican (51.5 vs 45.5)

Three Democrats who are vulnerable, as Trump won by 20 points in that state. We must reinforce the campaigns of these incumbent Democrats:

Montana
*, +  Support Senator John Tester

Election Results: Democrat (50.1 vs 47)

North Dakota
#,  # Support Senator Heidi Heitkamp

Election Results: Republican (55.4 vs 44.6)

West Virginia
+, +  Senator Joe Manchin
Election Results: Democrat (49.5 vs 46.3)

KEY

Cook 2018 Senate Race Ratingsupdated Oct 26. This will be followed by the score given by University of Virginia Center For Politics’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated Nov 5.

Solid  Democrat SD
Likely Democrat ++
Leans Democrat +
Toss Up *
Leans Republican #
Likely Republican ##
Solid Republican SR

Five Democrats who are not as solid or safe as they can be. Yet, Republicans have struggled to attract strong candidates. Continue to support these candidates in your local state by attending town halls, public events, rallies, and debates:

Michigan
++, SD  Senator Debbie Stabenow Election Results: Democrat (52.2 vs 45.8)
New Jersey
*,  ++  Senator Bob Menendez Election Results: Democrat (53.7 vs 43.1)
Ohio
++, ++ Senator Sherrod Brown Election Results: Democrat (53.2 vs 46.8)
Pennsylvania
++, SD Senator Bob Casey Election Results: Democrat (55.6 vs 42.7)
Wisconsin
+ +, ++  Senator Tammy Baldwin Election Results: Democrat (49.6 vs 48.4)

Fifteen Democratic seats that are considered “Solidly Democrat”  by Cook and “Safely Democrat” by University of Virginia’s Center For Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball  .

California – Senator Dianne Feinstein
Connecticut – Senator Chris Murphy
Delaware – Senator Tom Carper
Hawaii – Senator Mazie Hirono
Maine – Senator Angus King
Maryland – Senator Ben Cardin
Massachusetts – Senator Elizabeth Warren
Minnesota  – Senator Amy Klobuchar
New Mexico – Senator Martin Heinrich
New York – Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
Pennsylvania – Senator Bob Casey (considered Safely Democrat by Crystal Ball)
Rhode Island – Senator Sheldon Whitehouse
Vermont – Senator Bernie Sanders (I)
Virginia – Senator Tim Kaine
Washington – Senator Maria Cantwell 

Four  Republican seats that are considered “Solidly Republican”  by The Cook Political Report and “Safely Republican’ by University of Virginia’s Center For Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball 

While these seats seem secure, still choose to volunteer if a Democratic candidate campaign headquarters  is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing.

Mississippi  – Senator Roger Wicker
Support Democrat David Baria 

Election Results: Republican (58.8 vs 39)

Nebraska
Senator Deb Fisher, Nebraska
Support Democrat Jane Raybould

Election Results: Republican (58.1 vs 38.3)

Utah  Senator Orrin Hatch – retiring Mitt Romney, Republican Primary Winner
Support Democrat Jenny Wilson

Election Results: Republican (62.6 vs 31.2)

Wyoming – Senator John Barrasso
Support Democrat Gary Trauner

Election Results: Republican (67.1 vs 30.1)

Reflect 

“ I worked for the troops my entire time in the United States Armed Forces because we know in the United States Armed Forces that it’s not the generals and the colonels that win battles, it’s the soldiers: it’s the people at the front, the mechanics with their wrenches, the drivers moving the logistics back in the rear. “
Wesley Clark , Retired General , U.S. Army

We are the people at the front, the mechanics with their wrenches, and the drivers moving the logistics who must fight the Battle for the Senate 2018. 

 

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Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on The Battle For The Senate (updated November 15)