Cutting The Federal Safety Net – Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid

Posted on August 29, 2018 by Debra29

“Our society must make it right and possible for old people not to fear the young or be deserted by them, for the test of a civilization is the way that it cares for its helpless members. ”  

                                                                                                                    Pearl S. Buck

Inform

In The Cross Hairs

Last year, Congress and President Trump made clear their fiscal priorities: Cut taxes, grow defense spending and don’t worry for now about the rising federal budget deficit. The House GOP plan last spring would have cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid to balance the budget. These three programs will continue to be in the cross hairs of cost cutting and budget balancing in the face of rising deficits.

The Power and Influence of Older Voters

According to the Census Bureau the baby boomers began turning 65 in 2011 and are now driving growth at the older ages of the population. By 2029, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 years and over, more than 20 percent of the total U.S. population will be over the age of 65. 

“Candidates of both parties need to think about—and talk to—older voters in their states and districts,” says Nancy LeaMond, AARP chief advocacy and engagement officer. “They are the nation’s most reliable voters. They are informed and engaged, and they make up their minds early. “   

“Both parties have to do well with the senior vote if they are going to do well in the general election,” says Stephen Ansolabehere, a Harvard University professor of government who has studied voter turnout for decades. Many of the most competitive House races will be in states with high senior populations, such as Florida, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

While older people care about a broad range of issues, proposed changes in these three programs will drastically change their lives, and the lives of their families.

Will Social Security be cut?

Cuts to Social Security and Medicare are a reason to worry. Unless something is done to shore up Social Security, monthly checks could be cut by 23% by 2034. A report by Treasure Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that Medicare’s hospital insurance fund will be depleted in 2026, three years earlier than it forecast a year ago.  

The most immediate way Congress could make cuts to the Social Security Administration (SSA) is through the funding it provides in federal spending bills.  Eventually, Congress will need to address Social Security’s long-term fiscal health.

What’s less clear is when the legislature might tackle that debate, and which policies it might consider.  A GOP proposal to balance the budget included preventing people on Social Security Disability insurance from getting unemployment benefits.  In the past, options have ranged from privatizing parts of the program — a proposal that was rejected during the George W. Bush administration — to raising the age to become eligible for retirement benefits. Whatever path Congress ultimately pursues, Social Security advocates urge voters to make sure they get real answers from politicians.   

 Will Medicare be restructured? 

Washington always comes back to worrying about the deficit. And when it does, Medicare, which accounts for 15 percent of the federal budget, inevitably comes to mind. So when trimming the deficit again becomes an issue, “It’s quite possible that Medicare will be back on the chopping block,” says Tricia Neuman, Medicare expert at the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation.

One future possibility is Medicare beneficiaries will have to pick up a larger share of health costs. That means higher premiums, copays and cost sharing. Another alternative would be a voucher program where each beneficiary would receive a flat amount of money each year to buy health insurance. Others are promoting increasing age of eligibility to 67 or higher. This administration has proposed short term limited benefit insurance policies. But insurance companies can charge much higher premiums for seniors and don’t have to cover pre-existing conditions. 

Will Medicaid Be Severed?

Medicaid is a joint federal and state program that helps with medical costs for people with limited income and resources. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the survival of Medicaid will be in the hands of the state and federal officials we elect this fall.

Who is on Medicaid might surprise you. It could be your grandmother—one-quarter of Medicaid enrollees are elderly people or disabled adults.It could be the child next door. About half of Medicaid enrollees are children, many of them with special needs. The rest are adults without disabilities who earn too little to afford health insurance otherwise. Many of them are working: Six in 10 able-bodied adults on Medicaid have a job. And 78 percent of Medicaid recipients are part of a household with at least one person working full time. Many of those who don’t work are caregivers for other people.

The most persistent federal suggestion for reforming Medicaid is to turn it into a block grant program. Right now, as long as someone qualifies for the program, he or she is entitled to all the benefits covered. Under a block grant, states would get a fixed amount of money from the federal government. If Medicaid enrollees needed more care than the block grant paid for, states would have to make up the difference — or cut benefits or scale back who is eligible.

Supporters of block grants say it would get the entitlement program under control. Opponents counter that it would lead to millions of people being left without the care they need. 

Respond

Volunteer if a Democratic candidate  is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing.

Another option is to donate.  To all. To a few. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount. My prior A State By State Sizzling Hot Season post has been updated August 29 to include all primary results.

Contact your candidate at his or her campaign headquarters. Ask the following questions regarding proposed changes to our Federal Safety Net:

 On Social Security 

  1. Will you continue to fund Social Security and improve service?
  2. Are you committed to having annual cost-of-living adjustments keep up with inflation?
  3. Would you raise the age for full retirement benefits?
  4. Would you raise the cap on payroll taxes? (Workers pay into Social Security for the first $128,400 earned in 2018. Raising the cap would boost funding.)

On Medicare

  1. Do you believe Medicare benefits should be cut as a way to reduce the budget deficit?
  2. Do you favor converting Medicare to a voucher program?
  3. What changes would you make to insure that individuals continue to get promised benefits?
  4. Do you support expanding coverage to include hearing, vision, and dental care?

On Medicaid

  1. Will you promise not to cut Medicaid to pay for tax cuts or other spending?
  2. Will you oppose making Medicaid a block grant program?
  3. Will you support Medicaid guaranteeing long-term care services at home?
  4. Should Medicaid recipients be subject to work requirements?

Reflect

“It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped. ”  

                                                                                                        Hubert Humphrey

Posted in Midterm Elections, Social Security Medicare Medicaid, State Elections, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Cutting The Federal Safety Net – Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid

This Land Is Your Land – The Power of State Elections (Updated Nov 15)

Posted on August 8, 2018 by Debra29

“The powers delegated by the proposed Constitution to the federal government are few and defined.  Those which are to remain in State governments are numerous and indefinite.” – James Madison

Inform

The State’s Power

Your governor and state legislature make policy decisions affecting health care, education, infrastructure, immigration, Medicaid, job training, criminal justice reform, gun safety, family leave, sexual harassment and assault policy, income inequality, a woman’s right to choose, marriage equality, discrimination on the basis of gender identity, and protecting the environment to name a few. 

In addition, these races will have national implications with the next Census coming in 2020. In most states, the legislature redraws congressional districts, while the governor has veto power. Past Republican gerrymandering  manipulated the boundaries of an electoral constituency to favor their party in future Congressional elections. 

2018 Gubernatorial Elections

A Democratic Deficit I:  Heading into the elections there are 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors and 1 Independent governor. 

There will be 36 gubernatorial elections in 2018.  9 are Democrat (7 are not up for re-election) , 1 is an Independent and 26 are Republican (7 are not up for re-election). 

I’ve added the Democratic candidates for the governor races that are considered competitive to the prior post A State By State Sizzling Hot Season.

2018 State Legislature Elections

Eighty-seven of 99 state legislative chambers are holding general elections for 6,070 seats—roughly 82 percent of the 7,383 state legislative seats in the country this year. 

A Democratic Deficit II:  At present, Republicans control 67 of the 99 chambers and control both chambers in 32 states. Democrats control 32 chambers, and both chambers in 14 states. Only four states have divided control of their legislatures. 

For purposes of both lawmaking and redistricting of congressional and state legislative seats, both parties strive for “trifecta” (a run of 3) control of governorships and state legislatures. Right now, Republicans have 26 trifectas, an extremely high number, while Democrats enjoy only 8. 

Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia hold legislative elections in odd-numbered years.  Kansas, Minnesota, New Mexico, and South Carolina hold elections this year only for their lower chambers. 

If you are not a citizen of the 4 states above, you can become  involved in electing a Democratic candidate for the upper and lower chamber of your statehouse this year. Find out who represents you  in your state legislature, along with the district you live in. Ballotpedia offers information on the incumbents and candidates running this year.

Competitive Gubernatorial Races 2018

Cook 2018 Governor Race ratings, updated Oct 26.. 

Sabato’s Crystal Ball 2018 Governor updated Nov 5. 

Cook Solidly Democrat (3):
California Democrat Gavin Newsom(D), Hawaii Incumbent Gov. David Ige (D), New York Incumbent Gov. Mario Cuomo (D)
Election Results: All Democrat

Sabatos Safe Democrat (4:)
California (D), Hawaii (D), New York (D), Pennsylvania Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf (D)
Election Results: All Democrat

*Cook Likely Democrat (3):
 Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner (R), Minnesota Open (D), Pennsylvania (D)
Election Results: All Democrat

*Sabatos Likely Democrat (3) :
 Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner (R), Michigan Open (R), Rhode Island  Incumbent Democratic Governor Gina Raimondo
Election Results: All Democrat

*Cook Leans Democrat (4):
Colorado Open (D),  Michigan Open (R), New Mexico Open (R)
Election Results: All Democrat

*Sabatos Leans Democrat (12) :
Colorado Open (D), Connecticut Open (D), Florida Open (R),Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R), Kansas, Open (R), Maine Open (R), Minnesota Open (D), Ohio Open (R), Nevada Open (R), New Mexico Open (R), Oregon Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R)
Election Results: All Democrat except for Florida (to be determined), Iowa, and Ohio

*Cook Toss Up (12): 
Connecticut Open (D),  Florida Open (R),  Georgia Open (R), Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R), Kansas, Open (R), Maine Open (R), Nevada Open (R),  Ohio Open (R), Oklahoma,Open (R), Oregon Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown (D),  South Dakota Open (R), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (R)
Election Results: All Democrat except for Florida (to be determined), Ohio, Oklahoma, and South Dakota

*Sabatos Toss Up (1)
 Georgia Open (R),
Election Results: To Be Determined. 

*Cook Leans Republican (2):
Alaska Governor Bill Walker (I), New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R)
Election Results: All Republican

*Sabatos Leans Republican (3):
Alaska Governor Bill Walker (I), New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu (R), Oklahoma,Open (R),South Dakota Open (R)
Election Results: All Republican

**Cook Likely Republican (4): Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R), Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R),  South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster (R), Tennessee Open (R)
Election Results: All Republican 

**Sabatos Likely Republican (2):
 Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R), Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R)
Election Results: All Republican

Cook Solidly Republican (8):
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska,  Texas, Vermont, Wyoming
Election Results:All Republican

Sabatos Safe Republican (10) :
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, South Carolina,  Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming
Election Results:All Republican

Key

*Focus Group One:  If you need to limit your time or financial donation, these are the Democrat candidates who can use it.

** Focus Group Two:  These seats among the likeliest to come into play if there is a surge in Democratic voting.

Respond

  Volunteer if a Democratic candidate is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing.

     What can we do if limited with time? Donate  No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount

Reflect

“Let us never forget that government is ourselves and not an alien power over us. The ultimate rulers of our democracy are not a President and senators and congressmen and government officials, but the voters of this country. ”

Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

 

 

Posted in Governorships, Local and State Elections, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Comments Off on This Land Is Your Land – The Power of State Elections (Updated Nov 15)

A State by State Sizzling Hot Season (updated Nov 13)

Posted on July 26, 2018 by Debra29

The crucial Congressional and State races are days away.    Herein lies a succinct list of Democratic Candidates for Senator, Congressional Representative and Governor who need your help in competitive races across our nation.

Inform

Navigate to the prior updated posts of  Flipping The House , The Battle For The Senate and This Land Is Your Land – The Power of State Elections for more specific details of the races for Governor, Senator and Congressional Representatives.

The Democrats and candidates  not listed below are presently considered Solidly Republican or Solidly Democrat according to the Cook 2018 House Race Ratings updated Oct 30 , Cook 2018 Senate Race Ratings updated Oct 26, and the Cook 2018 Governor Races updated Oct 26. Another political analyst cited was Sabatos Crystal Ball’s  Senate Race Ratings Table  (updated Oct 31), and Gubernatorial Ratings  (updated Oct 31). Lastly, the Five Thirty Eight 2018 House Forecast (updated Nov 1) was also cited.

Respond

Attend  fall events for each candidate in your neighborhood, county, and/or state.  Meet the candidate or incumbent and share your concerns.  Their website will provide information on where and when. Each can be found at county fairs, celebrations, and picnics.

Volunteer if a Democratic candidate is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, and/or  fundraising. Participate in activities to Get Out The Vote.

Share this list with friends and family living throughout this great nation.   Post this list or blog on any group site you belong to,  and get the word out.

Donate to all or a few crucial House, Senate and Governor races.  Many of us have donated to races outside of our own state. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount. Remember to make it a one-time donation. A one-time campaign donation might institute a flurry of emails from that candidate.  If you don’t want that, just “unsubscribe” at the bottom of the email to remove your name from their list. 

Positive and Negative Motion 

Many  races have shown marked improvement as a result of your donations and the hard work of volunteers. This means they have moved from being considered a solid or likely Republican district to a Toss Up or became more a Democratic leaning or likely district. Despite this improvement, nothing is definite. It’s important to note that many many races still remain a “toss up” and your participation and/or donation can make a difference.

Negative Motion Updated Oct 12: North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp needs your help now. Her race is leaning Republican as a result of her vote against Kavanaugh.

The Asterisk Key:

*Focus Group I   If you need to limit your time or financial donation, these are the Democratic candidates who can use it.

**Focus Group II  These seats among the likeliest to come into play if there is a surge in Democratic voting. Support if you can. 

Alaska

The House Race

**Don Young, Alaska (Lone Seat)
Support Democrat Alyse Galvin

The Race For Governor

*Governor Bill Walker (I)
Support Democrat Mark Begich

 

Arizona

The Senate Race

*Open
Support Democrat Kristen Sinema 

The House Race

* O’Halleran, Ariz. 1
Support Democrat Tom O’Halleran

*Open Ariz. 2
Support Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick

*David Schweikert, Ariz. 6
Support Democrat Anita Malik

The Race For Governor

**Governor Doug Ducey (R)
Support Democrat David Garcia

Arkansas

The House Race

*French Hill, Ark. 2
Support Democrat Clarke Tucker

California

The House Race

*Tom McClintock, Calif. 4
Support Democrat  Jessica Morse 

*Ami Beri, Calif. 7
Support Democrat Ami Bera

*Jeff  Denham, Calif. 10
Support Democrat Josh Harder

*David Valadao, Calif. 21
Support Democrat TJ Cox

*Steve Knight, Calif. 25
Support Democrat Katie Hill

*Open, Calif. 39
Support Democrat Gil Cisneros

*Mimi Walters, Calif. 45
Support Democrat Katie Porter

*Dana Rohrabacher, Calif. 48
Support Democrat Harley Rouda

*Open, Calif. 49
Support Democrat Mike Levin

*Hunter, Calif. 50
Support Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar 

Colorado

The House Race

*Scott Tipton, Colo. 3
Support Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush

*Mike Coffman, Colo. 6
Support Democrat Jason Crow

The Race For Governor

*Open (D)
Support Democrat Jared Polis

Connecticut

The Race For Governor

*Open (D)
Support Democrat Ned Lamont

Florida

The Senate Race

*Support Democrat Senator Bill Nelson

The House Race

**Open , Fla. 6
Support Democrat Nancy Soderberg

*Murphy Fla.7
Support Democrat Stephanie Murphy

**Open, Fla. 15
Support Democrat Kristen Carlson

**Vern Buchanan, Fla 16
Support Democrat David Shapiro

 *Brian Mast, Fla. 18
Support Democrat Lauren Baer

*Mario Diaz-Balart, Fla. 25
Support Democrat Mary Barzee Flores

*Carlos Curbelo, Fla. 26
Support Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

*Open, Fla. 27
Support Democrat Donna Shalala

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Andrew Gillum

Georgia

The House Race

*Karen Handel, Ga. 6
Support Democrat Lucy McBath

**Rob Woodall, Ga. 7
Support Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Stacey Abrams

Illinois

The House Race

*Peter Roskam, Ill. 6
Support Democrat Sean Casten

*Mike Bost, Ill. 12
Support Democrat Brendan Kelly

*Rodney Davis, Ill. 13
Support Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londriga

*Randy Hultgren, Ill. 14
Support Democrat Lauren Underwood

The Race For Governor

*Governor Bruce Rauner (R)
Support Democrat JB Pritzger

Indiana

The Senate Race

*Support DemocratSenator Joe Donnely

The House Race

**Jackie Walorski Ind. 2
Support Democrat Mell Hall

*Trey Hollingsworth, Ind. 9
Support Democrat Liz Watson

Iowa

The House Race

*Rod Blum, Iowa 1
Support Democrat Abby Finkenauer

*David Young, Iowa 3
Support Democrat Cindy Axne

**King, Iowa 4
Support Democrat JD Scholten

The Race For Governor

*Governor Kim Reynolds (R)
Vote for Democrat Fred Hubbell

Kansas

The House Race

*Open, Kan. 2
Support Democrat Paul Davis

*Kevin Yoder, Kan. 3
Support Democrat Sharice Davids

The Race For Governor

*Governor Jeff Coyler (R)
Support Democrat Laura Kelly

Kentucky

The House Race

*Andy Barr, Ky. 6
Support Democrat Amy McGrath

Maine

The House Race

*Bruce Poliquin, Me. 2
Support Democrat Jared Golden

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Janet Mills

Maryland

The Race For Governor

**Governor Larry Hogan (R)
Support Democrat Ben Jealous

Michigan

The House Race

* Jack Bergman, Mi 1
Support Democrat Matthew Morgan 

**Fred Upton, Mich. 6
Support Democrat Matt Longjohn

*Tim Walberg, Mich. 7
Support Democrat Gretchen Driskell

*Mike Bishop, Mich. 8
Support Democrat Elissa Slotkin

*Open, Mich. 11
Support Democrat Haley Stevens

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Gretchen Whitmer

Minnesota

The House Race

*Open, Minn. 1
Support Democrat Dan Feehan

*Jason Lewis, Minn. 2
Support Democrat Angie Craig

*Erik Paulsen, Minn. 3
Support Democrat Dean Phillips

*Peterson, Minn.7
Support Democrat Collin Peterson

*Open, Minn. 8
Support Democrat Joe Radinovich

The Race For Governor

*Open (D)
Support Democrat Tim Walz

Mississippi

The Senate Race

Open (appointed Senator Cindy Hyde Smith)
##,  >>Support Democrat Mike Epsy

Missouri

The Senate Race

*Support DemocratSenator Claire McCaskill

The House Race

**Ann Wagner, Mo 2
Support Democrat Cort VanOstran

Montana

The Senate Race

*Support Democrat Senator John Tester

The House Race

**Greg Gianforte, Mont. 1
Support Democrat Kathleen Williams

Nebraska

The Senate Race

*Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fisher, Nebraska
Support Democrat Jane Raybould

The House Race

*Don Bacon, Neb. 2
Support Democrat Kara Eastman

Nevada

The Senate Race

*Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller
Support Democrat Jacky Rosen

The House Race

*Danny Tarkanian, Nev 3
Support Democrat Susie Lee

*Open, Nev 4
Support Democrat Stephen Horsford

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Steve Sisolak

New Hampshire

The House Race

*Open , NH 1
Support Democrat Chris Pappas

The Race For Governor

**Governor Chris Sununu (R)
Support Democrat Molly Kelly

New Jersey

 The House Race

*Open, N.J. 2
Support Democrat Jeff Van Drew

*Tom MacArthur, N.J. 3
Support Democrat Andy Kim

*Gottheimer, N.J. 5
Support Democrat Josh Gottheimer

*Leonard Lance, N.J. 7
Support Democrat Tom Malinowski.  An exceptional candidate representing my family, friends, and colleagues in New Jersey.

*Rodney Frelinghuysen, N.J. 11
Support Democrat Mikie Sherrill

New Mexico

 The House Race

* Open, N.M 2
Support Democrat Xochitl Torres Small

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham

New York

The House Race

*Lee Zeldin, N.Y. 1
Support Democrat Perry Gershon

*Peter King, N.Y. 2
Support Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley An exceptional candidate representing my family and friends of Long Island.

*Dan Donovan, N.Y. 11
Support Democrat Max Rose

*John Faso, N.Y. 19
Support Democrat Antonio Delgado

*Claudia Tenney, N.Y. 22
Support Democrat Anthony Brindisi

*John Katko, N.Y. 24
Support Democrat Dana Balter

*Chris Collins, N.Y. 27
Support Democrat Nate McMurray 

North Carolina

The House Race

**George Holding, N.C. 2
Support Democrat Linda Coleman

*Richard Hudson, N.C. 8
Support Democrat Frank McNeill

*Open, N.C. 9
Support Democrat Dan McCready

*Ted Budd, N.C. 13
Support Democrat Kathy Manning

North Dakota

The Senate Race

*Support Democrat  Senator Heidi Heitkamp

Ohio

The House Race

*Steve Chabot, Ohio 1
Support Democrat Aftab Pureval

**Michael Turner, Ohio 10
Support Democrat Theresa Gasper

*Pat Tiberi , Ohio 12
Support Democrat Danny O’Connor

**David Joyce, Ohio 14
Support Democrat Betsy Radar

The Race For Governor

*Open (R)
Support Democrat Richard Cordray

Oklahoma

The Race For Governor

**Open (R)
Support Democrat Drew Edmonson

Oregon

The Race For Governor

*Support Incumbent Democratic Governor Kate Brown 

Pennsylvania

The House Race

**Brian Fitzpatrick, Pa. 1
Support Democrat Scott Wallace

* Vacant, Pa. 5
Support Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon

*Open Pa. 6
Support Democrat Chrissy Houlaham

*Vacant, Pa. 7
Support Democrat Susan Wild

*John Chrin , Pa. 8
Support Democrat Matt Cartwright

# Perry, Pa10
Support Democrat George Scott

** Open, Pa 14
Support Democrat Bibiana Boerio

*Mike Kelly, Pa. 16
Support Democrat Ronald Di Nicola

*Keith Rothfus, Pa 17
Support Democrat Conor Lamb

The Race For Governor

*Support Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf

Rhode Island

The Race For Governor

*Support Incumbent Democratic Governor Gina Raimondo 

South Carolina

The House Race

**Open, S.C. 1
Support Democrat Joe Cunningham

The Race For Governor

**Governor Henry McMaster (R)
Support Democrat James Smith

Tennessee

The Senate Race

*Open
Support Democrat Phil Bredesen

The Race For Governor

**Open (R)
Support Democrat Karl Dean

Texas

The Senate Race

Incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz, Texas
*Support Democrat Betto O’Rourke

The House Race

**Open, Tex 2
Support Democrat Todd Litton

*John Culberson, Tex. 7
Support Democrat Lizzy Pannill Fletcher

*Lamar Smith, Tex. 21
Support Democrat Joseph Kopser

**Pete Olsen, Tex 22
Support Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni

*Will Hurd, Tex. 23
Support Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones

**Marchant, Tex 24
Support Democrat Jan McDowell

**John Carter, Tex. 31
Support Democrat M.J. Heger

*Pete Sessions, Tex. 32
Support Democrat Collin Allred

Utah

The House Race

*Mia Love, Utah 4
Support Democrat Ben McAdams

Virginia

The House Race

*Scott Taylor, Va. 2
Support Democrat Elaine Luria

**Open, Va. 5
Support Democrat Leslie Cockburn

*Dave Brat, Va. 7
Support Democrat Abigail Spanberger

*Barbara Comstock, Va. 10
Support Democrat Jennifer Wexton

Washington

The House Race

*Jaime Herrera Beutler, Wash. 3
Support Democrat Carolyn Long

*Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Wash. 5
Support Democrat Lisa Brown

*Open, Wash. 8
Support Democrat Kim Schrier

West Virginia

The House Race

**Open, W.Va 3
Support Democrat Richard Ojeda

Wisconsin

The House Race

**Open, Wis. 1
Support Democrat Randy Bryce

*Glenn Grothman, Wis. 6
Support Democrat Dan Kohl

The Race For Governor

*Governor Scott Walker (R)
Support Democrat Tony Evers

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) recently updated their focus to include the Solidly Democrat Congressional District races of Arizona 9, Colorado 2, Hawaii 1, Illinois 4, Maine 3, Maryland 6, Michigan 9 and 13, Minnesota 5, New Mexico 1, New York 25,  Pennsylvania 4 and Texas 16 and 29.

It will also focus on the Solidly Republican Congressional District races of Alabama 2 and  5, California 1 and 22, Florida 12, Indiana 9,  Maryland 1, Michigan 1, New Jersey 4, New York 21 and 23, Ohio 2, 7 and 15, Pennsylvania 9, 11 and 15,  West Virginia 2, and Wisconsin 7.

 

Posted in Congress, Governorships, Midterm Elections, The House Race, The Senate Race, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Comments Off on A State by State Sizzling Hot Season (updated Nov 13)

The Battle For The Senate (updated November 15)

Posted on July 21, 2018 by Debra29

Inform

     Republicans currently have a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with two independents caucusing with Democrats. With Vice President Pence as the tie-breaker in the Senate, Democrats need to flip a net of two seats in 2018 to win back the majority.

The Battle is Formidable

     Democrats are defending 26 seats — 10 of which are in states that President Trump carried — while Republicans have nine seats on the ballot, and only one (Nevada) in a state that Hillary Clinton carried. 

   In 2018, the numbers clearly work for the Republicans in Senate elections to retain and even expand their majority.

     Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver’s Political Calculus (updated Nov 1 ) estimates that Democrats have a 14.6% chance of winning control of the Senate .

  

Its Theatre 

 Democrats need to keep 26 seats.

 If you analyze the data below, 15 Senate seats are considered to be safely or solidly Democrat. That means 11 seats are in play.

Six Democratic Senators are fighting for their seats:  Florida*, Indiana*, Missouri*, Montana*, North Dakota* and West Virginia*.

Five additional seats were not considered solid or safe originally. But now polls show that Democratic support is surging in 4 of the 5:  Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin*. Recently,  New Jersey Senator Bob Menendez has slipped down to a toss up by the Cook Rating. 

 Democrats need to flip 2 seats, while keeping all of the above.

 Republicans are striving to keep 9 seats. Four Republican seats are considered to be safely or solidly Republican. 

This has left 5 Republican Senators fighting for their seats:  Arizona*, Mississippi*, Nevada*, Tennessee* and Texas*. 

*Though there are 35 Senate seats up for re-election, the bulk of so-called outside spending is being deployed in the most competitive races. The pace of spending is on track to set a record, in part because of recent changes in campaign finance rules that allow for unlimited spending by hundreds of political groups and a handful of wealthy individuals.

In the end, Democrats would have to keep all of the seats above and flip 2 Republican seats to win back Senate control.

The latest Cook Political Report 2018 Senate Race Ratings  (updated Oct 26) codes the Senate seats’ vulnerability.  The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends.

     Sabatos is  a comprehensive, nonpartisan political analysis and handicapping newsletter run by the University of Virginia Center For Politics.  Sabatos Crystal Ball’s Senate Race Ratings Table  (updated Nov 5) was another way to analyze each seat’s risk. 

   Respond

     Volunteer if a Democratic candidate is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing. Post this list on any Indivisble group site you belong to across the nation to get the word out.

     What can we do from afar?  Donate. To all. To a few. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount

     Forward this list to friends and family across the country.  Don’t exclude citizens over 60 who accounted for 39.4 percent of all voters- the largest single voting bloc in the last midterm election.  Second were people between 45 and 59, who made up 30.3 percent of voters. Offer to support an online donation on anyone’s behalf who is technology shy. They can send you a check.

The Democratic Front

5 Endangered Republican Seats  The objective is to flip each seat from Republican to Democrat in each of these states. I’ve provided a link to each Democratic candidate’s website where you can gather information about his or her priorities, values, and beliefs. These five Democratic candidates need all the support you can give to get them elected:  

Nevada   
Senator Dean Heller
*, + Support Democrat Jacky Rosen
Election Results: Democrat (50.4 vs 45.4)

Arizona
Open
*, + Support Democrat Kristen Sinema
Election Results: Democrat (50 vs 48)

Tennessee
Open  
 *, # Support Democrat Phil Bredesen 
Election Results: Republican (54.7 vs 43.9)

Mississippi
Open (appointed Senator Cindy Hyde Smith)
#,  ## Support Democrat Mike Epsy 

Election Results: To Be Determined  Runoff  Nov 27

Texas
Senator Ted Cruz, Texas
*, # Support Democrat Betto O’Rourke  

Election Results: Republican (50.9 vs 48.3)

The Democrats’ Defensive Position

Three Endangered Democrats who might lose their seat  Republicans are focusing on flipping these districts. We must support these 3 endangered, incumbent Democrats.

Florida
*, + Support Senator Bill Nelson
Election Results: To Be Determined

Indiana
*, # Support Senator Joe Donnely
Election Results: Republican (51 vs 45.1)

Missouri
*, # Support Senator Claire McCaskill

Election Results: Republican (51.5 vs 45.5)

Three Democrats who are vulnerable, as Trump won by 20 points in that state. We must reinforce the campaigns of these incumbent Democrats:

Montana
*, +  Support Senator John Tester

Election Results: Democrat (50.1 vs 47)

North Dakota
#,  # Support Senator Heidi Heitkamp

Election Results: Republican (55.4 vs 44.6)

West Virginia
+, +  Senator Joe Manchin
Election Results: Democrat (49.5 vs 46.3)

KEY

Cook 2018 Senate Race Ratings, updated Oct 26. This will be followed by the score given by University of Virginia Center For Politics’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated Nov 5.

Solid  Democrat SD
Likely Democrat ++
Leans Democrat +
Toss Up *
Leans Republican #
Likely Republican ##
Solid Republican SR

Five Democrats who are not as solid or safe as they can be. Yet, Republicans have struggled to attract strong candidates. Continue to support these candidates in your local state by attending town halls, public events, rallies, and debates:

Michigan
++, SD  Senator Debbie Stabenow Election Results: Democrat (52.2 vs 45.8)
New Jersey
*,  ++  Senator Bob Menendez Election Results: Democrat (53.7 vs 43.1)
Ohio
++, ++ Senator Sherrod Brown Election Results: Democrat (53.2 vs 46.8)
Pennsylvania
++, SD Senator Bob Casey Election Results: Democrat (55.6 vs 42.7)
Wisconsin
+ +, ++  Senator Tammy Baldwin Election Results: Democrat (49.6 vs 48.4)

Fifteen Democratic seats that are considered “Solidly Democrat”  by Cook and “Safely Democrat” by University of Virginia’s Center For Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball  .

California – Senator Dianne Feinstein
Connecticut – Senator Chris Murphy
Delaware – Senator Tom Carper
Hawaii – Senator Mazie Hirono
Maine – Senator Angus King
Maryland – Senator Ben Cardin
Massachusetts – Senator Elizabeth Warren
Minnesota  – Senator Amy Klobuchar
New Mexico – Senator Martin Heinrich
New York – Senator Kirsten Gillibrand
Pennsylvania – Senator Bob Casey (considered Safely Democrat by Crystal Ball)
Rhode Island – Senator Sheldon Whitehouse
Vermont – Senator Bernie Sanders (I)
Virginia – Senator Tim Kaine
Washington – Senator Maria Cantwell 

Four  Republican seats that are considered “Solidly Republican”  by The Cook Political Report and “Safely Republican’ by University of Virginia’s Center For Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball 

While these seats seem secure, still choose to volunteer if a Democratic candidate campaign headquarters  is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing.

Mississippi  – Senator Roger Wicker
Support Democrat David Baria 

Election Results: Republican (58.8 vs 39)

Nebraska
Senator Deb Fisher, Nebraska
Support Democrat Jane Raybould

Election Results: Republican (58.1 vs 38.3)

Utah –  Senator Orrin Hatch – retiring Mitt Romney, Republican Primary Winner
Support Democrat Jenny Wilson

Election Results: Republican (62.6 vs 31.2)

Wyoming – Senator John Barrasso
Support Democrat Gary Trauner

Election Results: Republican (67.1 vs 30.1)

Reflect 

“ I worked for the troops my entire time in the United States Armed Forces because we know in the United States Armed Forces that it’s not the generals and the colonels that win battles, it’s the soldiers: it’s the people at the front, the mechanics with their wrenches, the drivers moving the logistics back in the rear. “
Wesley Clark , Retired General , U.S. Army

We are the people at the front, the mechanics with their wrenches, and the drivers moving the logistics who must fight the Battle for the Senate 2018. 

 

Practical Tips

You can “follow” this blog by clicking on the “Follow” pop up. WordPress will then email you when the next post publishes. 

A one-time campaign donation might institute a flurry of emails from that candidate.  If you don’t want that, just “unsubscribe” at the bottom of the email to remove your name from their list. 

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on The Battle For The Senate (updated November 15)

Flipping The House 2018 (Updated Nov 15)

Posted on July 15, 2018 by Debra29

Inform

Democrats, who have been sidelined as the House minority party since 2010, need to flip 24 Republican seats while keeping the 194 seats they currently hold. How can we help from afar? Donate. Here is to whom.

My friends and family reside in the states of Arizona, California, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania,South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia,  Washington and Germany.  In turn, you each have your own extensive network. 

Respond

This post profiles over fifty Democratic candidates who are trying to flip a Republican District. I’ve provided a link to each candidate’s website where you can gather information about his or her priorities, values, and beliefs.

Volunteer if a Democratic candidate  is local, or within driving distance. This can take the form of phone banking (can be done at home), canvasing, fundraising, and/or attending public events, rallies, debates, and organizing. The midterm election results are in your hands.

Another option is to donate. To all. To a few. No amount is too small. Find the blank section of the donation section and add your own amount.

Forward this list to friends and family across the nation.  Don’t exclude citizens over 60 who accounted for 39.4 percent of all voters- the largest single voting bloc in the last midterm election.  Second were people between 45 and 59, who made up 30.3 percent of voters. Offer to support an online donation on anyone’s behalf who is technology shy. They can send you a check

If your state has yet to have a Primary, volunteer for the candidate that best reflects your beliefs, and get that person elected.

The list below was created from the DCCC Target List, the Cook Political Report Competitive Races list, and New York Times The Upshot. I coded each Republican Seat with ratings from these three.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is the Democratic Hill committee for the United States House of Representatives, working to elect Democrats to that body. The DCCC recruit candidates, raise funds, and organize races in districts that are expected to yield politically notable or close elections. I’ve noted if the race is on their Target List 

The Upshot, is a New York Times data driven venture, focusing on politics, policy and economic analysis.  Back in June, it used various variables to describe vulnerable Republic districts; 8 Types of GOP Districts To Watch  This included the following groups:  Well Educated Sunbelt,  Diverse Sun Belt, Suburban Stragglers, Suburban Survivors, White Working Class, Weaker Than They Should Be, Gerrymander Breakdown, and Perhaps Still Vulnerable.

 

All 435 House Seats are up for re-election.  I’ve used two political reports to analyze how the races are progressing. Cook Political Report  publishes the  2018 House Race Ratings. (updated Nov 5). The races not listed below are presently considered Solidly Republican or Solidly Democrat. The election results concurred.

 The first symbol is their rating.The second symbol, ~, indicates the race is on the DCCTarget List Nat Silver’s Five Thirty Eight (updated Nov. 6) uses statistical analysis to forecast election results. Their score will be the third and last symbol.

 

House Focus Group I

These are the Democratic candidates who can use your time and/or financial support.

Arizona
+, ++  O’Halleran, Ariz. 1 Election Results: Democrat (54 vs 46)
Support Democrat Tom O’Halleran

+, ~, SD  Open Ariz. 2  Election Results: Democrat (54 vs 46)
Support Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick

##, ~ , ## David Schweikert, Ariz. 6 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Anita Malik

Arkansas
## , ~, ## French Hill, Ark. 2 Election Results: Republican (52 vs 46)
Support Democrat Clarke Tucker

California
##, ~, ## Tom McClintock, Calif. 4 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat  Jessica Morse 

++ , SD Ami Bera, Calif. 7 Election Results: Democrat (54 vs 46)
Support Democrat Ami Bera

*, ~, ++ Jeff  Denham, Calif. 10 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Josh Harder

##, ~ , ## David Valadao, Calif. 21 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat TJ Cox

*, ~, + Steve Knight, Calif. 25 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 48)
Support Democrat Katie Hill

*, ~ , * Open,  Calif. 39 Election Results: To be determined
Support Democrat Gil Cisneros

*, ~ , + Mimi Walters, Calif. 45 Election Results: To be determined
Support Democrat Katie Porter

*, ~, * Dana Rohrabacher, Calif. 48 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 48)
Support Democrat Harley Rouda

++, ~, SD Open , Calif. 49} Election Results: Democrat (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Mike Levin

#, ~, ## Hunter, Calif. 50 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar 

Colorado
##, ~, # #Scott Tipton, Colo. 3 Election Results: Republican (52 vs 43)
Support Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush

+, ~, ++  Mike Coffman, Colo. 6 Election Results: Democrat (54 vs 43)
Support Democrat Jason Crow

Florida

++, ++ Murphy Fla.7 Election Results: Democrat (58 vs 42)
Support Democrat Stephanie Murphy

#, ~ , ## Brian Mast, Fla. 18 Election Results: Republican (54 vs 46)
Support Democrat Lauren Baer

#, ~, # Mario Diaz-Balart, Fla. 25 Election Results: Republican (61 vs 40)
Support Democrat Mary Barzee Flores

*, ~ , * Carlos Curbelo, Fla. 26 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

+, ~, ++ Open, Fla. 27 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 46)
Support Democrat Donna Shalala

Georgia
#, ~, * Karen Handel, Ga. 6 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 50)
Support Democrat Lucy McBath

Illinois
+, ~ , * Peter Roskam, Ill. 6 Election Results: Democrat (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Sean Casten

#,  # Mike Bost, Ill. 12 Election Results: Republican (52 vs 45)
Support Democrat Brendan Kelly

#, ~, # Rodney Davis, Ill. 13 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 50)
Support Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londriga

*, ~ , + Randy Hultgren, Ill. 14 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 48)
Support Democrat Lauren Underwood

Indiana

##, ~, SR Jackie Walorski, Ind. 2 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Mel Hall 

Iowa
+, ~, SD Rod Blum, Iowa 1 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 46)
Support Democrat Abby Finkenauer

*, ~ , + David Young, Iowa 3 Election Results: Democrat (49 vs 48)
Support Democrat Cindy Axne

Kansas
*, ~, + Open, Kan. 2 Election Results: Republican (48 vs 46)
Support Democrat Paul Davis

+, ~, ++ Kevin Yoder, Kan. 3 Election Results: Democrat (53 vs 44)
Support Democrat Sharice Davids

Kentucky
*, ~ , * Andy Barr, Ky. 6 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 48)
Support Democrat Amy McGrath

Maine
*, ~ , + Bruce Poliquin, Me. 2 Election Results: Democrat (50.53 vs 49.47)
Support Democrat Jared Golden

Michigan
##, ~, ##  Jack Bergman, Mich 1 Election Results: Republican (56 vs 44)
Support Democrat Matthew Morgan 

##, ~ , *  Tim Walberg, Mich. 7 Election Results: Republican (54 vs 46)
Support Democrat Gretchen Driskell

*, ~ , + Mike Bishop, Mich. 8 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 47)
Support Democrat Elissa Slotkin

+,  ~, ++ Open, Mich. 11 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 45)
Support Democrat Haley Stevens

Minnesota
*, * Open, Minn. 1 Election Results: Republican (50.2 vs 49.8)
Support Democrat Dan Feehan

+, ~, ++ Jason Lewis, Minn. 2 Election Results: Democrat (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Angie Craig

+, ~ , ++ Erik Paulsen, Minn. 3 Election Results: Democrat (56 vs 44)
Support Democrat Dean Phillips

++, ++ Peterson, Minn.7 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 48)
Support Democrat Collin Peterson

#, ##  Open, Minn. 8 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 45)
Support Democrat Joe Radinovich

Nebraska
#, ~, *  Don Bacon, Neb. 2 Election Results: Republican (52 vs 48)
Support Democrat Kara Eastman

Nevada
+, ++  Danny Tarkanian, Nev 3 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 43)
Support Democrat Susie Lee

+, ++ Open, Nev 4 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 44)
Support Democrat Stephen Horsford

New Hampshire

++, ++  Open , NH 1 Election Results: Democrat (54 vs 45)
Support Democrat Chris Pappas

New Jersey

++, ~,  SD  Open, N.J. 2 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 46)
Support Democrat Jeff Van Drew

*, ~, * Tom MacArthur, N.J. 3 Election Results: Democrat (50 vs 49)
Support Democrat Andy Kim

++,  SD  Gottheimer, N.J. 5 Election Results: Democrat (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Josh Gottheimer

*, ~, ++ Leonard Lance, N.J. 7 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 47)
Support Democrat Tom Malinowski.  An exceptional candidate representing my family, friends, and colleagues.

+, ~ , ++ Rodney Frelinghuysen, N.J. 11 Election Results: Democrat (56 vs 43)
Support Democrat Mikie Sherrill

New Mexico
* , * Open, N.M 2 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Xochitl Torres Small

New York
##, ~, ##  Lee Zeldin, N.Y. 1 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 46)
Support Democrat Perry Gershon

##, ~, #  Peter King, N.Y. 2 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley  An exceptional candidate representing my family and friends of Long Island. My sister Loretta is a campaign volunteer.

#, ~, ## Dan Donovan, N.Y. 11 Election Results: Democrat (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Max Rose

*, ~ , + John Faso, N.Y. 19 Election Results: Democrat (50 vs 47)
Support Democrat Antonio Delgado

*, ~, *  Claudia Tenney, N.Y. 22 Election Results: To be determined
Support Democrat Anthony Brindisi

#, ~, ## John Katko, N.Y. 24 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Dana Balter

#, ~ , # # Chris Collins, N.Y. 27 Election Results: To be determined
Support Democrat Nate McMurray 

North Carolina

##, ~ , ##  Richard Hudson, N.C. 8 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Frank McNeill

*, ~, *  Open, N.C. 9 Election Results: Republican (49.9 vs 48.8)
Support Democrat Dan McCready

*, ~, #  Ted Budd, N.C. 13 Election Results: Republican (52 vs 46)
Support Democrat Kathy Manning

Ohio
#, ~ , ## Steve Chabot, Ohio 1Election Results: Republican (52 vs 46)
Support Democrat Aftab Pureval

## , ~ , ## Michael Turner, Ohio 10 Election Results: Republican (56 vs 42)
Support Democrat Theresa Gasper

*, ~, #  Vacant, Ohio 12 Election Results: Republican (52 vs 47)
Support Democrat Danny O’Connor

Pennsylvania

*, *  Brian Fitzpatrick, Pa. 1 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Scott Wallace

++,  SD Vacant, Pa. 5 Election Results: Democrat (65 vs 35)
Support Democrat Mary Gay Scanlon

++, ~, SD  Open Pa. 6 Election Results: Democrat (59 vs 41)
Support Democrat Chrissy Houlaham

+, ~, SD Vacant, Pa. 7 Election Results: Democrat (53 vs 44)
Support Democrat Susan Wild

++, ~, SD  Incumbent Cartwright , Pa. 8 Election Results: Democrat (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Matt Cartwright

##, ~, SR  Open, Pa 14 Election Results: Republican (58 vs 42)
Support Democrat Bibiana Boerio

#, ~,  ## Mike Kelly, Pa. 16 Election Results: Republican (52 vs 47)
Support Democrat Ronald Di Nicola

++, SD Keith Rothfus, Pa 17 Election Results: Democrat (56 vs 44)
Support Democrat Conor Lamb

Texas

*, ~, *  John Culberson, Tex. 7 Election Results: Democrat (53 vs 48)
Support Democrat Lizzy Pannill Fletcher

##, ~, ##  Open, Tex. 21 Election Results: Republican (50 vs 48)
Support Democrat Joseph Kopser

#, ~, ## Will Hurd, Tex. 23 Election Results: To be determined
Support Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones

*, ~ , # Pete Sessions, Tex. 32 Election Results: Democrat (52 vs 46)
Support Democrat Collin Allred

Utah
*, ~ , + Mia Love, Utah 4 Election Results: To be determined
Support Democrat Ben McAdams

Virginia
*, ~, #  Scott Taylor, Va. 2 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Elaine Luria

#, ~, *  Open, Va. 5 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Leslie Cockburn

* , * Dave Brat, Va. 7 Election Results: Democrat (50 vs 49)
Support Democrat Abigail Spanberger

+, ~ , ++  Barbara Comstock, Va. 10 Election Results: Democrat (56 vs 44)
Support Democrat Jennifer Wexton

Washington
#, ~,  #  Jaime Herrera Beutler, Wash. 3 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Carolyn Long

#, ~,  ## Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Wash. 5 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Lisa Brown

+, ~ , + Open, Wash. 8 Election Results: Democrat (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Kim Schrier

Wisconsin

##, ~, SR  Glenn Grothman, Wis. 6 Election Results: Republican (56 vs 45)
Support Democrat Dan Kohl

Key

 Cook’s 2018 House Race Ratings (Updated Oct 30) and Nat Silvers Five Thirty Eight House Forecast (Updated Nov 1)

SD Solidly Democrat
++ Likely Democrat
+ Leans Democrat
* Toss Up
# Leans Republican
## Likely Republican
SR Solidly Republican

~ On DCC Target List

 

House Focus Group II

The next three groups of Republican Districts  are among the likeliest to come into play if there is a surge in Democratic voting. Be part of that wave. Volunteer if these are your local candidates. Donate. These districts are more challenging and hard to predict. It’s important to note that there is still a chance that Democrats can win.

Alaska

#, #  Don Young, Alaska (Lone Seat) Election Results: Republican (54 vs 46)
Support Democrat Alyse Galvin

Florida

#, # Open , Fla. 6 Election Results: Republican (56 vs 44)
Support Democrat Nancy Soderberg

*, * Open, Fla. 15 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 47)
Support Democrat Kristen Carlson

#, ## Vern Buchanan, Fla 16 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat David Shapiro

Georgia
#, ## Rob Woodall, Ga. 7 Election Results: To Be Determined
Support Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux

Iowa
#, ##  King, Ia 4 Election Results: Republican (50 vs 47)
Support Democrat JD Scholten

Michigan

#, ## Fred Upton, Mi 6 Election Results: Republican (50 vs 46)
Support Democrat Matt Longjohn

Missouri
#, ## Ann Wagner, Mo 2 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 47)
Support Democrat Cort VanOstran

Montana
#, ## Greg Gianforte, Mont. 1 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 46)
Support Democrat Kathleen Williams

North Carolina
#, ##  George Holding, N.C. 2 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 46)
Support Democrat Linda Coleman

Ohio

##, ##  David Joyce, Ohio 14 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 45)
Support Democrat Betsy Radar

Pennsylvania
#, # Perry, Pa10 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat George Scott

South Carolina
# , ## Open, S.C. 1 Election Results: Democrat (51 vs 49)
Support Democrat Joe Cunningham

 Texas

##, ## Open, Tex 2 Election Results: Republican (53 vs 46)
Support Democrat Todd Litton

#, ## Pete Olsen, Tex 22 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 46)
Support Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni

##, SR  Marchant, Tex 24 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 48)
Support Democrat Jan McDowell

## , ## John Carter, Tex. 31 Election Results: Republican (51 vs 48)
Support DemocratM.J. Heger

West Virginia
#, ## Open, W.Va 3 Election Results: Republican (56 vs 44)
Support Democrat Richard Ojeda

Wisconsin
#, ## Open, Wis. 1 Election Results: Republican (55 vs 42)
Support Democrat Randy Bryce

Key

 Cook’s 2018 House Race Ratings (Updated Nov 5) and Nat Silvers Five Thirty Eight House Forecast (Updated Nov 6)

SD Solidly Democrat
++ Likely Democrat
+ Leans Democrat
* Toss Up
# Leans Republican
## Likely Republican
SR Solidly Republican

 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) recently updated their focus to include the Solidly Democrat Congressional District races of Arizona 9, Colorado 2, Hawaii 1, Illinois 4, Maine 3, Maryland 6, Michigan 9 and 13, Minnesota 5, New Mexico 1, New York 25,  Pennsylvania 4 and Texas 16 and 29.  It will also focus on the Solidly Republican Congressional District races of Alabama 2 and  5, California 1 and 22, Florida 12, Indiana 9,  Maryland 1, Michigan 1, New Jersey 4, New York 21 and 23, Ohio 2, 7 and 15, Pennsylvania 9, 11 and 15,  West Virginia 2, and Wisconsin 7.

Reflect

“Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring, those ripples build a current that can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance.”
Robert F. Kennedy

Next Post: The Battle For The The Senate

Posted in Midterm Elections, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Comments Off on Flipping The House 2018 (Updated Nov 15)

Independence Day 2018

Posted on July 4, 2018 by Debra29

I dedicate this blog to my mom, Mariet Sagrestano Varban, who passed this past year. She gave my sisters and I the courage, spirit, and strength to advocate, defend, and support human rights.

This political blog was created as a central resource of civic response to the current administration’s policies and legislation. If there is a time to be involved in this Democracy,  it is now.  We are each responsible for molding the architecture of this nation’s purpose and values. There are no small actions. Let this Independence Day be the beginning of a ripple effect,  one small pebble at a time.

This blog follows the structure of Inform, Respond, and Reflect

Inform:   This section will have text or links to read regarding federal, state, and local issues, in addition to candidates in the State, Local and Congressional Midterm Elections.

Respond : Each post will provide information and/or links to actions. Responses vary by how much time you have available:

Minimum Time

  • Donations –  Donate within your means. Fundraising will be crucial for 2018 Congressional, State, and Local  candidates.

Moderate Time

  • Hold your 2018 Congressional, State, and Local incumbent and candidate accountable for each and every issue before the election. 
    • Call
    • Email
    • Attend meetings and public events and ask questions. 
  • Participate in an organized march  – I’ll give notice for scheduled marches but feel free to join any pop-up kinds. Handwritten signs are very effective. Have your children and grandchildren help with these, and join the march. 

Abundant Time

  • Meet, organize  and plan. Small locally based discussion groups are a powerful tool. They can have a big impact on the national debate.
  • Volunteer for a 2018 election campaign. I will provide information concerning the upcoming midterm elections, in addition to governor, state senators, and assembly members. Democrats are notorious for not showing up at midterm elections, and that’s one variable as to how Republicans have been successful at taking over statehouses, in addition to the Congress.
  • Help in getting out the vote through phone banking, canvassing, and voter registration drives.

Reflect: This Fourth of July Celebration

The Declaration of Independence was always our vision of who we wanted to be, our ideal of freedom and justice, how we were going to be different, and what the American experiment was going to be about. Marian Wright Edelman Founder and President of the Children’s Defense League

It was that which gave promise that in due time the weights should be lifted from the shoulders of all men, and that all should have an equal chance. This is the sentiment embodied in that Declaration of Independence. Abraham Lincoln, 16th US President

The Declaration of Independence, the United States Constitution, the constitutions of the several states, and the organic laws of the territories all alike propose to protect the people in the exercise of their God-given rights. Not one of them pretends to bestow rights. Susan B Anthony, Social Reformer and Women Rights Activist

Our government leaders… have made many mistakes in the past when they have lost sight of the sacred American values rooted in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. We are at the brink of even graver mistakes and assaults on these values.  Samuel Dash, Chief Counsel, Senate Watergate Committee

We have had in our nation a well-celebrated Declaration of Independence. But our success as a country will depend upon a new ‘Declaration of Inter-dependence.’ A belief in how much we need each other, how much we share one common destiny.     Cory Booker, NJ Senator

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Local and State Elections, Midterm Elections, Uncategorized | Comments Off on Independence Day 2018

The New York Democratic Primary

Posted on September 4, 2017 by Debra29

“The vote is the most powerful nonviolent tool we have”

John Lewis

“The ballot is stronger than the bullet”

Abraham Lincoln

New York City residents will now begin the process of electing officials who will frame housing, education, welfare, immigration, and environmental policy.

Inform

Important Dates To Remember :

Tuesday September 5
: Last day to postmark an application for an absentee ballot.

Tuesday September 12
: New York Primary Election.  Polls open from 6am to 9pm.

Who’s On The Ballot  is a superb site for all  New York City residents. It provides you with  a copy of the ballot you will receive, along with all the information you need to know.

Mayor
The Mayor is the Chief Executive Officer of the city. He or she has the power to appoint all the heads of agencies and departments, appoint 7 of the 13 members of the City Planning Commission, and sign bills into law. The mayor is also responsible for preparing city budgets and revenue estimates.

Democratic Mayoral Candidates (you will vote for one):

Sal F. Albanese
Bio: An attorney, financial adviser and former New York City Councilmember. The New York Times covered the first primary debate with DiBlasio’s main Democratic opponent.

Richard Bashner
Bio: Commercial lawyer The online daily neighborhood news  Bklyner offers a profile on this Park Slope attorney.

Bill de Blasio
Bio: Incumbent mayor  The Mayor is often in the headlines for various policy decisions including congestion pricing, distance from the city’s titans of finance,   affordable housing, the homeless, and education.

Robert Gangi
Bio: Gangi is the former executive director of the New York Correctional Association and the founder of the Police Reform Organizing Project. Business Insider writes about Mr. Gangi and the “broken windows” policy.

Mike Tolkin
Bio: The CEO of a virtual reality technology company called Ultro Labs.  This mayoral hopeful  outraises and outspends his opponents.

Media coverage of the mayoral primary includes  the Daily News, The New York Post,  and The New York Times.

Updated Sept. 5:  The New York Times Endorsement for Mayor.

Important Date To Remember before the Primary:

Wednesday, Sept 6: Leading Democrat Contenders Debate
7:00 p.m.at CUNY Graduate Center Studio
TV: WCBS, WLNY-TV 10/55
Radio: 1010WINS, NewsRadio 880

Important Dates To Remember after the Primary:

Tuesday October 10:
 First General Election Mayoral Debate
7:00 p.m.
TV: NY1, NY1 Noticias (Spanish)
Radio: WNYC

Wednesday November 1
:  Leading Contenders Mayoral Debate
7:00 p.m.
TV: WCBS, WLNY-TV 10/55 (Spanish)
Radio: 1010 WINS, NewsRadio 880

 

Comptroller
The Comptroller works as economic director of the city, advising fiscal policies and financial transactions, as well as issuing and selling city bonds. He or she also conducts performance audits of city agencies.

Democratic Comptroller Candidate:

Scott Stringer, Democrat, incumbent  (Sole Democrat)    The Daily News recently reported on Comptroller Scott Stringers break with Mayor Di Blasio on subway funding question. 

(As there’s only one Democratic candidate, you will see his name on the November General Election ballot)

Important Dates To Remember after the Primary:

Tuesday October 17:  
First Comptroller Debate
7:00 p.m.
TV: NY1, NY1 Noticias
Radio: WNYC

Sunday October 22
 Leading Contenders Comptroller Debate
8:00 a.m.
TV: WCBS, WLNY-TV 10/55
Radio: 1010WINS, NewsRadio 880

 

Democratic Public Advocate
The Public Advocate acts as a citizen’s liaison, coordinating public information and reviewing complaints of city programs. The Public Advocate also appoints 1 of the 13 members of City Planning Commission. In a situation where the mayor is incapacitated, the Public Advocate is next in the line of succession.

Democratic Public Advocate Candidates (you will vote for one):

Letitia James, Democrat, incumbent  Her most recent report found that thousands of students with disabilities who were given the vouchers weren’t receiving services to which they were entitled.
David Eisenbach, Democrat    The editors of City Limits and Gotham Gazette interviewed him about his reasons for running and his plans for the office.

Important Date To Remember after the Primary:
Monday October 16
: First Public Advocate Debate
7:00 p.m.
TV: NY1, NY1 Noticias
Radio: WNYC

Borough President
The Borough President is chosen by the people of the borough to be the head of their administration. Equipped with their own cabinet and staff, this person takes lead initiative in proposing legislation, zoning changes, city wide budget recommendations, land use planning and local service delivery. They appoint 1 of the 13 members of the City Planning Commission as well as members of the community board. This person also holds public hearings concerning borough wide issues.

Each borough president reflected on the state of their borough back in March.

Brooklyn Borough President Democratic Candidate: 

Eric Adams, Democrat, incumbent (Sole Democrat)  Mr. Adams recently called for an independent probe into wrongful convictions in Brooklyn.  He has pushed to expand sustainable fueling options and affordable housing.

(As there’s only one Democratic candidate, you will see his name on the November General Election ballot)

 Queens Borough President Democratic Candidate:
Melinda Katz, Democrat, incumbent (Sole Democrat) Ms. Katz has worked on issues concerning Federal Immigration Agents and public schools, the development of Willets Point, and the values of diversity.

(As there is only one Democratic candidate, you will see her name on the November General Election ballot)

I focused on my borough of Brooklyn, along with my family’s borough of Queens. The borough presidents of the Bronx, Manhattan, and Staten Island are also up for re-election.

City Council Member
The City Council is the legislative body of the city. Members come together to adopt local laws, amend the City Charter, enact local taxes, approve the budget, and oversee city agencies. Most importantly, they have the power to override mayoral vetoes.

 City Council Democratic Candidates 

I have profiled my own district, along with friend’s and family’s districts. Other City Council Districts and candidates can be found in City Limit’s Who’s Who in the Contested City Council Races 

The New York Times has endorsed City Council candidates in the most competitive races.

DISTRICT 32

Belle Harbor, Breezy Point, Broad Channel, Howard Beach, Lindenwood, Neponsit, Ozone Park, Richmond Hill, Rockaway Park, Roxbury, South Ozone Park, West Hamilton Beach, Woodhaven

City Council Democratic Candidates for District 32  (you will vote for one)

Briefly: Incumbent Republican Eric Ulrich is seeking re-election. These Democratic candidates are vying to face him in November:

Helal Sheikh (Democrat)

Michael Scala (Democrat)

William Ruiz (Democrat) He has no website. This article refers to a forum he was in.

 

DISTRICT 35

Fort Greene, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Prospect Heights, Bedford Stuyvesant

 City Council Democratic Candidates for District 35:  (you will vote for one)

Laurie Cumbo Incumbent (Democrat) This is a heated rematch in Central Brooklyn.

Ede Fox (Democrat)

DISTRICT 39
Cobble Hill, Carroll Gardens, Columbia Waterfront, Gowanus, Park Slope,
Windsor Terrace, Borough Park Kensington

 

Briefly:  Incumbent Democrat Brad Lander is seeking re-election. (Sole Democrat) He has a plan to desegregate citywide public schools , and has called  for the creation of a task force to oversee the city’s large construction projects, Brad Lander has proposed that cities will  fight inequality and encourage more equitable growth. His Get Organized BK is a response to the White House administration policies. and has been present at numerous rallies held in response to Charlottesville White Supremacists.

(As there is only one Democratic candidate, you will see his name on the  November General Election ballot)

DISTRICT 40

Crown Heights, East Flatbush, Flatbush, Kensington, Midwood, Prospect Park, and Prospect Lefferts Gardens

City Council Democratic Candidates for District 40:  (you will vote for one)

Jennifer Berkley (Democrat)

Brian-Christopher Cunningham (Democrat)

Dr. Mathieu Eugene (incumbent, Democrat)  Dr. Eugene has worked on issues such as immigration, affordable housing, and health services.

Pia Raymond (Democrat)

 

District Attorney
The District Attorney is the head prosecutor of the borough in which he or she has been elected.

Democratic Brooklyn District Attorney Candidates:  (you will vote for one)

All six candidates positioned themselves as the most reform-minded in the race in a   forum this past June.

Eric Gonzalez, Democrat,  incumbent (named acting District Attorney in 2016)
Patricia Gatling, Democrat
Vincent Gentile, Democrat
Stephanie Ama-Dwimoh, Democrat
Marc Fliedner, Democrat
Anne Swern, Democrat

Updated September 5: New York Times endorsement for Brooklyn District Attorney.

 

Justices of the Civil Court of the City of New York – Job Description 
Justices of this court handle cases under $25,000, including a Small Claims Court for cases under $3000. Justices will also handle housing disputes.

Democratic New York City Civil Court Kings County Justices Candidates:  (You will vote for five):

A Slate of independent Democrats pushed back agains the Kings County Democratic Club in this race.  Ellen Edwards,  at first considered an underdog, has gone on to become one of the front-runners in the race. The Kings County Democratic Club is  supporting Robin Sheares, Frederick Arriaga, David Pepper, Consuelo Melendez, and Patria Frias-Colon.

Updated September 7: City Limits provides a profile for each of the candidates.

Democrats:

Frederick C. Arriaga
Ellen Edwards

Patria Frias-Colon
Patrick Hayes
Isiris Isela Isaac
Thomas Kennedy
Connie Melendez
John O’Hara
David Pepper
Sandra Roper

Robin Sheares 

Civil Judges of 6th Municipal District in Brooklyn

Northern Park Slope, Lefferts Garden, a stretch between Coney Island Avenue and Ocean Avenue to Avenue M

Elena Barron

Rupert Berry

Derefim Neckles

Hemalee Patel

 

Justices of the Supreme Court of New York State
A justice on this court may handle civil cases as well as serious felonies. Keep in mind the Supreme Court in New York is different than in other states because decisions may be appealed to a higher court (Court of Appeals).

Candidates for the supreme courts are chosen indirectly by delegates and only appear on the general election ballot. You vote for the delegates but I found it hard to get information on each delegate.

 

Respond and React:

Calling all Democrats: VOTE

“None of the other three most recent Democratic presidential nominees — Hillary Clinton, John Kerry and Al Gore — inspired great turnout. …..In off-year elections, Democratic turnout is even spottier, which helps explain the Republican dominance of Congress, governor’s mansions and state legislatures.“

While the focus of this post is the New York City Primary elections, please get as involved as you can in your own local elections.  Help to ” get out the vote”  among your friends, neighbors and family members. Let’s break the record for Democratic turnout in 2017 Primary and General Elections, and next year’s 2018 State and Congressional Mid Term elections. 

If you are enraged with the policies of the present administration, now is the time to act:

  •  Become informed. Read. Watch the Debates
  • VOTE.
  • Get your candidates elected: phone banking, canvassing, meetings in your home, donations, signs, etc.

As Joe Biden so eloquently stated

“Joined together, we are more than 300 million strong. Joined together, we will win this battle for our soul. Because if there’s one thing I know about the American people, it’s this: When it has mattered most, they have never let this nation down.”

 

Posted in Local and State Elections, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on The New York Democratic Primary

The Power of Local and State Elections

Posted on May 16, 2017 by Debra29

“The happy Union of these States is a wonder; their Constitution a miracle; their example the hope of Liberty throughout the world.”                       James Madison

Never question the importance of becoming involved in local and state-wide elections. Your local and state government policies will address all changes coming down the Trump Administration. This would include undocumented immigrant policies at the state or local  levels.  The House’s recently passed health care bill gives broad power to states regarding Medicaid, pre-existing conditions, essential health benefits, lifetime limits and higher premiums for older Americans. State and local legislators also participate in amending and repairing our justice system as in Kalief’s Law, or shutting down the violence plagued Rikers Island.   As my prior post indicated, they both have a vested interest in improving air quality and becoming greener. States and cities create policies that affect the LGBT community including discrimination, adoption, and access to public bathrooms. It is their responsibility to support public schools in the face of U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos’ support of charters and vouchers. Now is the time to get informed, involved, organized and, most importantly, to vote.

Inform

Governorships

Republicans hold a historically wide edge of 33-16 in gubernatorial offices. The gubernatorial battleground in 2017/2018 will be especially important because it offers Democrats the biggest potential haul of governorships in advance of the once-every-decade legislative and congressional redistricting process that will begin after the 2020 Census.

36 Gubernatorial seats up in 2017 and 2018

The reason for this large number is governors are being term-limited out. Those positions are called “open seats”,  as opposed to “incumbents” who are running for a second term. Fourteen of the thirty-six  seem safe for the incumbent party. That leaves twenty two that are vulnerable for flipping over to the opposite party.

2017/2018 Vulnerable Open Seats

As of right now, vulnerable Republican open seats are in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey (2017) and New Mexico. This means your participation can switch these governorships to Democrat. Vulnerable Democratic seats are in Colorado and Virginia (2017). This means your participation will secure a Democrat for governor. 

2018 Vulnerable Incumbents

As of right now, the Democrats have three vulnerable incumbents in Connecticut, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. This means your participation can keep these Democrats in power.  There is one vulnerable Republican incumbent in Illinois. This means your participation will help elect a Democrat for governor. 

2018 Potentially Vulnerable…

Republican held Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Ohio and Wisconsin are on the list. This means your participation will help elect a Democrat for governor.  The Democratic governorships of Minnesota and Oregon may also be at risk, along with the Independent Bill Walker of Alaska. This means your participation will help secure a Democrat in power, or elect a new one in Alaska.

Safe Seats

The three gubernatorial that seem safe for the Democrats include New York, California and Hawaii.

The 2017 New Jersey State Elections 

Inform

Important Dates To Remember
June 6, 2017 Primaries
November 7, 2017 General Election

The Race For Governor of New Jersey

Democrats Phil Murphy,  Jim Johnson, John Wisniewski, and Ray Lesniak are the front runners  for governor. The final major televised debate in the Democratic governor primary was a “a raucous and rancorous exchange.” Other Democrat hopefuls include Raymond Lesniak, Mark Zinna and Bill Brennan.  Republicans running for governor include Kim Guadagno,  Jack Ciattarelli,  Hirsh Singh,  Joseph Rullo, and Steve Rogers. The whole nation will watch this election to see if New Jersey flips its governorship to Democrat.

Respond and React:

Vote on Primary Day, June 6. Once the primaries are over, contact your candidate and volunteer in any way you can to secure a Democratic governor for your state : phone banking, canvassing, meetings in your home, donations, signs, etc.

The New Jersey Legislature Race

Inform

All 120 seats of the State Senate and General Assembly are up for re-election. The 40 member Senate is made up of 24 Democrats and 16 Republicans. The NJ General Assembly has 52 Democrats and 28 Republicans for a total of 80 members.

My former neighborhood, Hunterdon County New Jersey, is in the 15, 16 and 23rd State Legislative Districts. (D indicates Democrat and R, Republican)
          State Senator                               Assembly Representatives

District 15      Shirley Turner, D         Reed Gusciora, D and Elizabeth Maher Muoio, D

All three are running for re-election. Democrat challenger, Gail Boyle Boyland, is also running for NJ Assembly. Be sure to vote in the Democrat Primary, Tuesday June 6, and decide who should represent you in the Assembly. The Republican Ticket includes Lee Newton, Rimma Yakobovich and Emily Rich.  Goal of Election Day, November 7: Keep District 15 Blue

District 16  Christopher (Kip) Bateman,R       Jack Ciattarelli,R and Andrew Zwicker,D

This is considered a split district which has a chance to swing Democrat this year. Democrat Laurie Poppe, is running for State Senate. Democrats Andrew Zwicker and Roy Freeman are running for NJ Assembly. The Republican Ticket includes Christopher Bateman, Donna Simon and Mark Caliguire. Goal of Election Day, November 7: Turn District 16 Completely Blue

District 23    Michael J. Doherty, R                     John DiMaio, R and Erik Peterson, R

This is a sprawling district which includes 34 communities in Hunterdon, Somerset, and Warren Counties. Among the district’s registered voters, more than one third are Republican and one fourth are Democrat with the balance unaffiliated. This district has a chance to swing Democrat this year. Democrat Christine Lui Chen is running for State Senator. Democrats Laura Shaw and Isaac Hadzovic are running for N.J. Assembly. All three Republicans are seeking re-election. Goal of Election Day, November 7: Turn District 23 Blue

Steps for finding who is running in other parts of New Jersey:

Step 1. Go to the New Jersey Legislature site.  Find your municipality, and determine what district you are in. Link to it.

Step 2. Click on “Legislators for your District” to determine who your State Senator is, and who represents you in the Assembly.

Step 3. Find out who is running for your district. These are the people who will create laws for New Jersey. Become informed. What is their experience, policies, and purpose?

Respond and React:

Vote on Primary Day, June 6. Once the primaries are over, contact your candidates and volunteer in any way you can to secure your district: phone banking, canvassing, meetings in your home, donations, signs, etc.

Goal of Election Day, November 7: Elect a Democrat For Governor in New Jersey. Increase the number of Democrat representatives in the New Jersey Senate and Assembly.

Virginia State Elections 2017

Inform

Important Dates To Remember
June 13, 2017 Primary
November 7, 2017 General Election

The Race For Governor

There is a tight race between Democrats Tom Perlello and Ralph Northam.  Republican candidates include Ed Gillespie , Corey A. Stewart and Frank W. Wagner. Recent polls indicate Republican Ed Gillespie would tie with either of the Democrats vying for their party’s nomination. The whole nation will watch this election to see if a Democrat stays in office.

The Virginia Legislature Race

The Virginia General Assembly is made up of a State Senate and a House of Delegates. The Republican Party presently holds the majority in the Virginia House of Delegates (66 to 34). All 100 seats are up for re-election.  The Senate of Virginia has 40 Senators with 21 Republicans and 19 Democrats. These are four-year terms and are not up for re-election until 2019.

Respond and React:

Vote on Primary Day, June 13. Once the primaries are over, contact your candidates and volunteer in any way you can to secure your district: phone banking, canvassing, meetings in your home, donations, signs, etc.

Goal of Election Day, November 7: Elect a Democrat For Governor in Virginia. Increase the number of Democrat representatives in the House of Delegates.

New York City Elections 2017 (my hometown)

Inform

Important Dates To Remember

July 1, 2017 Filing deadline for candidates
September 12, 2017 Primary
November 7, 2017 General Election

The Race For Mayor and All Citywide Elections

 Bill De Blasio is running for re-election, and the field is thick with Democratic, Republican,  Independent and undeclared candidates. The other citywide positions of Public Advocate and Comptroller will also be voted on, as well as all five Borough Presidents, all 51 City Council seats, and two District Attorney positions (Brooklyn and Manhattan).

Respond and React:

Now is the time to become informed about who is running before September’s Primary. Look for my update in July, when I’ll profile the front runners for each position.  Once the primaries are over, contact your candidates and volunteer in any way you can to secure this position: phone banking, canvassing, meetings in your home, donations, signs, etc.

State and Local Elections of the other 48 States

Inform

Your Governor

Now is the time to get involved with electing a Democratic candidate for governor in your state. Here are summaries of incumbents and possible candidates.

Your State and Local Legislatures

Start becoming familiar with who represents you. Every state except Nebraska has a bicameral legislature, meaning that the legislature consists of two separate legislative chambers or houses. The smaller house is called the Senate, and the larger chamber has different names in different states. Find out about your state, city, and township representatives.

Respond and React:

The decisions, regulations, and policies made by this administration will dramatically affect your state and local government. Become informed,  involved, and engaged.  

  • Call
  • Email
  • Register for their newsletter
  • Attend town hall meetings and ask questions
  • Attend public events with your State and Local representative and ask questions.
  • Talk to your State or Local Representative in person, at the district or state  office.
  • Consider running for office

Reflection

Zeynep Tufekci, author of  Twitter and Tear Gas, The Power and Fragility of Networked Protest,  worries that today’s “digitally-fueled” protests and movements, if they lack “organizational and other collective capacities,” will be significantly less successful than people once hoped:

“ I was thinking that if you really wanted to put a real scare into the 20 or 30 Republicans [in particularly vulnerable districts], if you put up a fundraising page, a single fundraising page, and I raise a huge amount very quickly, it sends a signal. Money is a little more costly, obviously, than sending a text. It’s also sending a signal that we can organize this and we can put in large numbers and we’re going to spend this against you. And I don’t mean this to say that the other forms don’t work. It depends on how you organize them. If, for example, congresspeople go back to town halls and they meet enormous crowds that just are sticking there and that this thing doesn’t die down and it appears clear that people are going to spend a lot of effort to defeat you, that’s going to spook legislators because their jobs and their future is pretty significant to them.”

Life was always a matter of waiting for the right moment to act….  Paulo Coelho

Posted in Governorships, Local and State Elections, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on The Power of Local and State Elections

Our Environment

Posted on April 20, 2017 by Debra29

“Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children.”

Ancient American Indian Proverb

Inform

The Paris Climate Accord

This administration will make the final decision on the fate of the Paris agreement before a meeting of the Group of 7 leading economies at the end of May. President Trump had vowed to “cancel” the climate deal which would weaken it substantially. Some policy advisors, however, have recently urged Trump to keep the U.S. in the Paris Accord. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and major corporations have stepped in to embrace this position. There would be both diplomatic and economics consequences to withdrawing from the accord. Other governments will be less likely to carry out their pledged emissions cuts without the U.S. In addition, most countries will place a carbon tariff on imports of American made goods. Regardless of the upcoming decision, the U.S. Paris pledge of reducing 2005 planet-warming carbon pollution 26% by 2026 was fractured by Trump’s decision to dismantle the Clean Power Plan.

The Clean Power Plan

The Trump Administration issued an executive order gutting the Clean Power Plan . The plan’s goals were to regulate emissions from power plants, and reduce harmful soot and smog. The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that when implemented, the plan would prevent 3,600 premature deaths a year. In addition, the agency said, it would prevent 1,700 heart attacks, 90,000 asthma attacks and 300,000 missed days of work or school a year.

The other purpose of the Clean Power Plan was to ask states to set clean energy goals. Western states are already running homes and businesses with clean, renewable energy and many are on track to surpass what the Clean Power Plan outlines while keeping energy bills low. Most states have clean energy goals in place as a way to create jobs, reduce energy bills and cut damaging pollution. The fear is that without a Clean Power Plan, some states may not set clean energy goals. In the end, repealing Obama’s Clean Power Plan will be a tricky, years-long process.

 

The EPA Pesticide Decision

Toxic chemicals will face less restrictive regulation by the Trump Administration.  It is keeping chlorpyrifos on the market despite evidence that found harm to consumers or humans living in the areas where the pesticide was applied. Fruit and vegetable farmers use this chemical on citrus trees, strawberries, broccoli and cauliflower. EPA proposed a ban on chlorpyrifos in 2015,  and the present EPA says it’s reversing course.

Fuel Efficiency Standards For Cars

This administration is considering rolling back fuel efficiency standards that required automakers to achieve an average 54 mpg across their fleets by 2025. Such rules are critical to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. An earlier EPA waiver has allowed California and a dozen other states to set stricter emissions standards than these. The administration has this waiver in its crosshairs as automakers will still be compelled to produce more fuel efficient cars as California is its largest car market.

Climate Progress With or Without Trump?

Michael R. Bloomberg, billionaire and former mayor of New York City, claims that there will be climate progress despite this administration’s rollback of environmental protections. “No matter what roadblocks the White House and Congress throw up, the United States can — and I’m confident, will — meet the commitment it made in Paris in 2015 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are warming the planet.”  He believes people are ….. underestimating the role that cities, states, businesses and consumers are playing in driving down emissions on their own.” He goes on to say “The Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign, which works to replace coal with cleaner forms of energy ……, projects that more plant closings will get us to nearly two-thirds of our goal. …In combination with existing federal policies that can’t be undone, like vehicle fuel efficiency standards through model year 2021, the last third can be achieved by cities and businesses that are taking action to cut pollution and improve their energy efficiency. ”

Respond & React

Donations/Actions

The Sierra Club , founded by legendary conservationist John Muir, is now the most influential grassroots environment organization accepting donations and offering many opportunities to take action under their Move Beyond Fossil Fuels programs.

The League of Conservation Voters  is an American political advocacy organization that assists political candidates who it believes support a pro-environment agenda. It accepts donations and coordinates actions.

The Union of Concerned Scientists performs important research on climate changes and breaks down those results so non-scientists can understand.  They also offer a toolkit for those looking to get involved with advocacy work, from tips on writing and calling policymakers, getting media to cover events, and raising issues at public meetings – so your actions can have the biggest impact.

The Environmental Defense Fund  is a nonprofit environmental advocacy group with a staff of 550 scientists, economists and policy experts. It accepts donations and coordinates various actions.

Hold Your Representatives Accountable.

  • Call
  • Email
  • Send a postcard
  • Attend town hall meetings and ask questions
  • Attend public events with your Member of Congress and ask questions.
  • Talk to your Member of Congress in person, at the district or congressional  office.

A sample script:  I support the Paris Climate Accord. We must limit global temperature rise in order to avoid the most dangerous consequences of the climate crisis. Don’t roll back the Clean Power Plan. Obligate the EPA to protect the climate and reduce carbon emissions. I want my food to be toxin free. Ban the use of chlorpyrifos and protect the health of our families. In closing, I am in favor of strong fuel efficiency standards and do not expect to have them weakened. More efficient vehicles result in fuel economy, and leaves our air cleaner and our climate healthier.

  • Participate in an organized march

Saturday, Earth Day, April 22, this country will have a nation-wide March For Science. Marches will take place in Washington, D.C.,  in addition to other locations.  This was organized by “a diverse, non-partisan group to call for science that upholds the common good and for political leaders and policy makers to enact evidence based policies in the public interest.”

THE PEOPLE’S CLIMATE MOVEMENT
Saturday, April 29,  350.org, an international environmental organization,  is organizing a march on Washington DC , and across the country to bring attention to the climate crisis.

Reflect

Don’t let fear stop you. Don’t give up because you are paralyzed by insecurity or overwhelmed by the odds, because in giving up, you give up hope.

Sonia Sotomayor

It took a lot of blood, sweat and tears to get to where we are today, but we have just begun. Today we begin in earnest the work of making sure that the world we leave our children is just a little bit better than the one we inhabit today.
Barack Obama

Posted in Environment, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Our Environment

The Repeal of The Affordable Care Act

Posted on March 31, 2017 by Debra29

Inform – Updated May 2017

 

On May 4, 2017, the House narrowly approved (217-213) legislation to repeal and replace major parts of the Affordable Care Act. Twenty Republicans joined Democrats in voting no.

The House bill would eliminate tax penalties for people who go without health insurance. It would roll back state-by-state expansions of Medicaid, which covered millions of low-income Americans. And in place of government-subsidized insurance policies offered exclusively on the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces, the bill would offer tax credits of $2,000 to $4,000 a year, depending on age.

The first version of this bill would trim the federal deficit considerably,  but would also leave 24 million more Americans without health insurance after a decade, (Congressional Budget Office). Average insurance premiums would be 15 percent to 20 percent higher in 2018 and 2019, but after that, they would be lower than projected under current law. The Republicans did not wait for the Congressional Budget Office to analyze this version of the bill. I will post their analysis when published.

This legislation allows states to set the terms for insurers when it comes to people with pre-existing conditions, including charging them more. People could be charged based on their health status if they experienced a gap in coverage. States could also seek waivers from requirements that insurers cover 10 essential health benefits including maternity, mental health and prescription drugs and that they charge their oldest customers no more than three times more than their youngest ones.

This is a side by side comparison of how the proposed Republican “American Health Care Act” compares to the 2010 Affordable Care Act.

The GOP Health Bill is Still Far From Law.

Original Post

 “ If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.” Sun Tzu, (6th Century BCE)

Who are members of the Freedom Caucus and Tea Party?

They are conservative Republican legislators who were furious over the 2009 stimulus bill that contained more than $800 billion in tax relief and spending to help the economy recover from the recession.They also disliked the auto industry bailouts and financial sector rescue. Today, these blocks of legislators are committed to cutting taxes (for the wealthy), and shrinking government to lower the federal deficit. More importantly, their focus is to severely cut back government programs that guarantee certain benefits to a particular group or segment of the population, known as entitlement programs. We know them as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

Not only did these conservative Republicans influence the original language of the Republicans “American Health Care Act”, they were responsible for the final highlighted revisions added in the eleventh hour.  Even then, the proposed American Health Care Act was neither conservative nor radical enough for the likes of the Koch Brothers, along with Heritage Action, and Club For Growth.

What’s another conservative point of view? 

Jennifer Rubin, conservative blogger for the Washington Post’s Right Turn, offers a different perspective on Obamacare. “For more than seven years Republicans have told themselves the public hates Obamacare because it “limits freedom” or because it contains too many taxes (the lion’s share applicable only to the very rich). In fact, what upsets people is Obamacare’s failure to make good on its promise to lower premiums and deductibles. Polls consistently showed that the percentage of those who liked Obamacare or wanted it to be more generous dwarfed the percentage of those who wanted to scrap it.”

Defunding Planned Parenthood

The proposed American Health Care Act had a provision that wouldn’t allow states to use “direct spending” on “prohibited entities” with federal funds. This would have meant blocking the 60% of Planned Parenthood patients who rely upon Medicaid and Title X, the nation’s family planning program. Planned Parenthood is this nation’s leading reproductive health care provider. Its health centers provide health care to 2.5 million people in rural and medically underserved areas with health professional shortages. Extreme politicians led by Vice President Mike Pence and Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price have supported legislation to “defund” Planned Parenthood for years. In 2015 Congress attempted to do so by attaching it to a budget reconciliation measure,  only to be stopped by then President Obama.

As the first attempt to repeal The Affordable Care Act failed, the Republicans continued their assault on March 30, 2017.  “With a rare tie-breaking vote from Vice President Mike Pence, the Senate on Thursday sent a bill to President Donald Trump’s desk giving states permission to withhold federal family planning funds from Planned Parenthood and other abortion providers.”.
The History of The Affordable Care Act, aka Obamacare

Democrats, activists, advocates, and intellectuals have worked toward creating a universal health care system since Franklin Roosevelt was in the White House. When President Obama was elected, he borrowed their work for his own plan. Then Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus “ convened meetings with virtually every health care stakeholder, from hospitals to unions to insurers to patient advocacy groups, exchanging ideas and negotiating over principles. It meant that when the actual legislating started, the channels of communication were already open and the groundwork for a common vision was already in place. And still it was a nearly impossible task.”

How The Affordable Care Act can be improved.

One year ago President Obama put forth eight ideas and proposals for constructive changes to Obamacare.

Another voice, Kimberly Amadeo, President of World Money Watch and author of The Ultimate Obamacare Handbook, weighs in with “11 problems with the most comprehensive piece of legislation since the Social Security Act and Medicare.”

Respond & React

The repeal of the Affordable Care Act is back on the agenda. It will just be a matter of time when another bill will evolve.

  • Donate

Families USA is a nonprofit, nonpartisan consumer health advocacy group.

Planned Parenthood  delivers vital reproductive health care, sex education, and information to millions of women, men, and young people.

  • Hold your Representative accountable

Your engaged, passionate response through rallies, town halls, calls, and contact made a difference.  Use the prior Members of Congress post, and be ready to begin all actions once a new bill is introduced that attempts to repeal The Affordable Care Act.

The Kaiser Family Foundation, a non-partisan non-profit organization that focuses on national health issues, helped to provide an accurate analysis of the American Health Care Act.  Be sure to use them as a resource once the next bill is released.

Act Now is the action arm of Families USA , and includes scripts, petitions, and more when contacting your legislator.

I Stand With Planned Parenthood  is the advocacy and action arm of Planned Parenthood. It coordinates actions, legislator contact, marches, and more.

  • Join or organize a group. Participate in a march.

Organizing For Action is a nonprofit organization that advocates for the agenda of former U.S. President Barack Obama. The organization is officially non-partisan, but its agenda and policies are strongly allied with the Democratic Party. The site provides resources, tools, specific actions and events.

Resistance Near Me is a site offered by the Center for American Progress Action Fund, a progressive public policy and advocacy organization. This site was created for you to find any public event, rally, town hall, protest, and more, in your state, as well as the information you need to contact your member of congress.

 

Reflect

It took me quite a long time to develop a voice, and now that I have it, I am not going to be silent.                                                                                Madeline Albright

 

Hope is being able to see that there is light despite all the darkness.    Desmond Tutu

Posted in Affordable Care Act, Planned Parenthood | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on The Repeal of The Affordable Care Act