Republicans now hold a majority of Senate seats while only representing a minority of Americans. The parties have reorganized themselves along urban-rural lines, and there is now a clear and pronounced partisan small-state bias in the Senate thanks to mostly rural, less populated states voting increasingly Republican. In fact, it’s reached the point that Republicans can win a majority of Senate seats while only representing a minority of Americans.
Can the Democrats win back the majority in the Senate? Democrats’ likeliest path is to pick up at least four Senate seats and win the White House to get the majority, but they’ll have to win in some conservative-leaning states to do it. Volunteer and support your own Democrat Senator in every way you can.
Here are the top 14 Senate races most likely to flip parties in November. There are 12 chances for Democrats to flip Senate seats and just two for Republicans on this list. So many of the races are close and could go either way — while others are more of a stretch for Democrats. I’ve placed them in four categories: More likely to flip than not, toss-ups, could flip under the right conditions, and lastly, could flip, maybe. The list was sorted according to both The Washington Post and the Cook Political Report. Nate Silver’s site Five Thirty Eight updates poll status throughout the day for each Congressional Race, in addition to the Presidential race itself. Should you wish, you can check this site to see how the specific Senate race is going in the crucial campaigns below.
Please note that Five Thirty Eight uses a variety of pollsters. FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls. You’ll see this rating in a blue circle to the left. Other pollsters are banned due to poor accuracy and methodology.
Volunteer, support and donate toward the following crucial campaigns.
It’s expected that the outcome of the presidential contest will most likely be decided in eight swing states; Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Consequently, the Senate races in these states more important than ever.
Support Alabama Senator Doug Jones in a losing fight to flip his district by Republican Candidate Tuberville.
Arizona Senate Democrat Candidate Mark Kelly needs your support as he’s likely to flip the seat of Republican Senator McSally.
Colorado Senate Democrat Candidate John Hickenlooper needs your support as he’s likely to flip the seat of Republican Senator Gardner.
Georgia Senate Democrat Candidate Jon Ossoff needs your support as he is fighting to flip the seat of Republican Senator Perdue.
Georgia Senate Democrat Candidate Raphael Warnock needs your support as he is fighting to flip the seat of Republican Senator Loeffler.
Iowa Senate Democrat Candidate Theresa Greenfield needs your support as she is fighting to flip the seat of Republican Senator Ernst.
Maine Senate Democrat Candidate Sara Gideon needs your support as she is fighting to flip the seat of Republican Senator Collins.
North Carolina Senate Democrat Candidate Cal Cunningham needs your support as he has a good chance to flip the seat of Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
Montana Senate Democrat Candidate Steve Bullock needs your support as he is fighting to flip the seat of Republican Steve Daines.
South Carolina Senate Democrat Candidate Jaime Harrison needs your support as he is fighting to flip the seat of Republican Senator Graham.
Could Flip Under The Right Conditions
Alaska Senate Independent Candidate Al Gross needs your support as he is struggling to flip the seat of Republican Senator Sullivan.
Kansas Senate Democrat Candidate Barbara Bollier needs your support as she is struggling to flip the seat of Senate Republican Candidate Roger Marshall.
Texas Senate Democrat Candidate MJ Heger needs your support as she is struggling to flip the seat of Republican Senator Cornyn.
Could Flip Maybe
Kentucky Senate Democrat Candidate Amy McGrath needs your support as she is losing the fight to flip the seat of Republican Senator McConnell.
Michigan Democrat, Senator Gary Peters still needs your support, though he is likely to keep his seat against opponent Senate Republican Candidate James.
The Presidential Election
I, personally, don’t put much weight on polls, as the 2016 Presidential Election can attest. But, for those of you who might want to keep your finger on the election forecast pulse, 538 updates the Election Forecast on a regular basis.
The most important action you can take is to volunteer/donate in every way you can on every front for the Joe Biden/Kamala Harris Campaign.
Next Post: Crucial U.S. House Seats
Will post the most competitive and crucial House seats in the next post. In the meanwhile, volunteer and support your own House Democrat Representative in every way you can.
Will follow that post with an update on Biden’s new policies.