General Dwight D Eisenhower
Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs this fall. Democrats’ chances to seize power from the Republicans hinge on a narrow set of battleground seats and states.
There will be elections in 34 Senate seats and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives in November. But only a small fraction are truly competitive. I’ll be using both the Cook Political Report and the Virginia Center for Politic’s “Crystal Ball” to focus on those competitive races.
Can the Democrats win back the Senate? Republicans still have some clear advantages on the map, but President Trump’s unpopularity has opened the door for an outcome that once seemed far-fetched.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter provides independent, non-partisan analysis of elections and campaigns for the U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. Founded by Charlie Cook in 1984, the CPR is the preeminent prognosticator and producer of federal and state election ratings and is routinely sourced by national and local media, political professionals, educators and researchers.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is a nonpartisan online political newsletter and handicapping website that forecasts election outcomes and analyzes American politics. Run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics and founded by political scientist Larry Sabato, it functions as a public service for voters and political observers
Competitive U.S. House Races
Updated October 7, 2026
According to both the Cook Political Report (updated Sept 25, 2026) and The Center For Politics (Sabato’s Crystal Ball) (updated Sept 29,2026)
6 Democrat and 22 Republican races can be flipped.
The U.S. House Democrats At Risk that need your help
Florida 14 U.S. Democrat Representative Kathy Castor
Florida 25 U.S. Democrat Representative Jared Moskowitz
Ohio 9 U.S. Democrat Representative Marcy Kaptur
Texas 34 U.S. Democrat Representative Vincente Gonzalez (now posted as Leans Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s list)
Washington 3 U.S. Democrat Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (now posted as Leans Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List)
North Carolina 1 U.S. Democrat Representative Don Davis (This race is only posted on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s list)
The U.S House Republicans Districts that can be flipped to Democrat
Arizona 1 Help support Democrat candidate Amish Shah (now posted as Leans Democrat on Cook’s Political Report List)
Arizona 6 Help support Democrat candidate Jo Anna Mendoza
California 22 Help support Democrat candidate Randy Villegas (now posted as Leans Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List)
Colorado 8 Help support Democrat candidate Manny Rutinel
NEW POSTING Newly drawn district – Florida 22 Support Democrat candidate Pia Dandiva (This race is only posted as a Toss Up on Cooks Political Report’s list)
Iowa 1 Help support Democrat candidate Christina Bohannan (now posted as Leans Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List)
NEW POSTING Iowa 2 Help support Democrat candidate Lindsay James (This race is only posted as a Toss Up on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s list)
Iowa 3 Help support Democrat candidate Sarah Trone Garriott
NEW POSTING Michigan 4 Help support Democrat candidate Sean McCann (This race is only posted as a Toss Up on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s list)
Michigan 7 Help support Democrat candidate William Lawrence
Michigan 10 Help support Democrat candidate Christina Hines
New Jersey 7 Help support Democrat candidate Rebecca Bennett (now posted as Leans Democrat on both the Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s and Cook’s Political Report List)
New York 17 Help support Democrat candidate Cait Conley
North Carolina 11 Help support Democrat candidate Jamie Ager
Ohio 7 Help support Democrat candidate Brian Poindexter
Pennsylvania 7 Help support Democrat candidate Bob Brooks (now posted as Leans Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List)
Pennsylvania 8 Help support Democrat candidate Paige Cognetti
Pennsylvania 10 Help support Democrat candidate Janelle Stelson
Texas 15 Help Support Democrat candidate Bobby Pulido
NEW POSTING Virginia 1 Help support Democrat candidate Shanon Taylor (This race is only posted as a Toss Up on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s list)
Virginia 2 Help support Democrat candidate Elaine Luria (now posted as Leans Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List)
Wisconsin 3 Help support Democrat candidate Rebecca Cooke
Competitive U.S. Senate Races
Updated October 7, 2026
According to both the Cook Political Report (updated Oct 6, 2026) and The Center For Politics (Sabato’s Crystal Ball) ( updated Oct 6, 2026)
1 Democrat and 6 Republican races can be flipped.
Alaska Help support Democrat candidate Mary Peltola (now posted as Leans Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List
Iowa Help support Democrat candidate Josh Turek
NEW POSTING Kansas Help support Democrat candidate Adam Hamilton (now posted as Leans Republican on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List)
Maine Help support Democrat candidate Troy Jackson
Michigan Help support Democrat candidate Abdul El-Sayed (now posted as Likely Democrat on Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s List
Ohio Help support Democrat candidate Sherrod Brown
Texas Help support Democrat candidate James Talarico
What You Can Do
Donate a little to each campaign above or focus on a few. Volunteer . This includes, but not limited to, registration drives, canvassing, phone banking, text banking, post card and letter writing. Attend their town halls, fairs and public events.
Join National Networks whose focus is on getting out the vote:
League of Women Voters
Rock The Vote
The following organizations let you decide who to communicate with: battleground state voters, a particular campaign, specific congressional races, etc. You, yourself, can organize post card and letter writing “parties”. They’re a good way to work together and network at the same time.
Vote Forward
Postcard to Voters
Postcards to Swing States
Join National Networks whose focus is on electing local politicians:
Indivisible
Move On
Assaults on Voting by this Republican Administration
Updated Sept 25, 2026
The Supreme Court Ruling on use of Federal Data base
The Supreme Court permitted the Trump administration to use an expanded federal database containing citizenship information, as the president encourages states to purge people from voter rolls.
Federal Officers at the Polls
Federal interference at the polls is against the law. Two coalitions of voting officials, civil rights groups and unions. filed lawsuits is aimed at blocking federal officers from the polls under different aspects of federal law.
The Supreme Court Ruling on Mail In Voting
On September 15, 2026 the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s mail voting restrictions for this year’s midterms. The ruling released Monday by the high court means the U.S. Postal Service is expected to continue delivering ballots as usual.
Voting by mail has already begun in states including Alabama, North Carolina and Wisconsin, with more soon to follow — including Western states such as Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, where elections are held primarily or fully with mail ballots.
Originally, on August 26, 2026, he Supreme Court originally issued an emergency order that allows the Trump administration to move forward, for now, with plans to restrict mail-in voting ahead of the midterm elections in November. Opponents say it will bring chaos to the election process only days before ballots in some states are mailed out. This is a result of two lawsuits brought by a group of states and the League of Women Voters involving an executive order President Trump signed in March directing the U.S. Postal Service to determine which voters should receive mail-in ballots.
How this affects you right now. Please check with your local county board of elections to see how this affects your decision to vote by mail in the upcoming election. Check that you won’t lose your ability to vote in the fall. The objective of this administration is to sow confusion and doubt for the upcoming elections.
A local elections board in NJ posted the following this week due to the uncertainty of how this will play out: “Anyone who is not comfortable at this time with receiving a Vote by Mail, may opt out by sending an email to countyclerk@co.hunterdon.ni.us and provide their full name, address and date of birth. They will receive confirmation that you will no longer receive a Vote by Mail Ballot and may vote early or at your polling place on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Requests must be submitted no later than Friday, Sept. 4.” Check with your local site to see if changes are being made in your voting district
Methods of voting remain unchanged in NJ for this year following the Supreme Court decision. Still many suggest vote early and use secure boxes if using a mail in ballot.
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November’s Governor and State Legislative Elections
