Shakespeare, Julius Caesar

Inform

Who will decide the 2024 Presidential Race?

Women

Women have registered and voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, with the turnout gap between women and men growing slightly larger with each successive presidential election. Young people, especially young women, drove the Democratic resistance to the “red wave” in the 2022 election. Kamala Harris’ chances in November could hinge on a women’s voting surge.

Project 2025 will have a devastating effect on women. It maps out the permanent reversal of more than 50 years of hard-fought gains for American women and girls. It promotes the patriarchal family and biblically based marriage. It will destroy reproductive rights including abortion, contraception, sex education and gender-affirming healthcare.

How could the 2024 election affect coverage of and access to women’s health care? By strengthening or restricting Medicaid funding. By strengthening or restricting Title X funding for family planning and preventive services. While maternal wellness has strong backing of both parties, the way to do so differs.

Harris is targeting women of every stripe: Since Biden bowed out, poll after poll has shown women voting increasingly Democratic — an 18-point gap in the male-female vote in an ABC News/Ipsos poll out over Labor Day weekend. Reproductive rights soared past the economy as the top voting issue for women in swing states under age 45, New York Times/Siena College polling found.

Independents and the Undecided

Polls show an incredibly tight race between the two candidates , and a handful of swing voters could decide the election, depending on who they vote for or if they decide to stay home. Only a tiny slice of the electorate is considered persuadable — anywhere from 6% or less to the low teens. And while undecided voters often have unique reasons for what influences their votes, there was a clear gender divide.That reflects the wide gender gap seen in polls between the candidates. How could anyone at this date still be undecided?

With polls showing the presidential election a toss up, the votes that third-party and independent candidates receive in key states could very well decide the White House. In a race that will be decided on the margins in a handful of states, the Harris campaign and its allies are working to win over at least a few Republicans and right-leaning independents uncomfortable with the Trump-led Republican Party.

Young Voters

Young voters could have a monumental impact on the election, including the deadlocked presidential contest. Nationwide, nearly 42 million 18-to-27-year-olds — the group known as Generation Z — will be eligible to vote, according to a Post analysis of 2022 census data. Nearly half are people of color. n the seven battleground states — Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — about 7.8 million Gen Zers are eligible to vote in this fall’s election.

Voters concerned about Body Politics

In the five decades that Roe v. Wade was the law of the land, almost every abortion question on state ballots was put there by anti-abortion groups. In the last two years, abortion rights activists won seven out of seven ballot initiatives. So this fall, they’re swinging big, asking voters in 10 states to establish a constitutional right to abortion.

Democrats have another motivation for the initiatives: to drive turnout for Kamala Harris and the party’s congressional candidates, especially in battleground states like Arizona and Nevada. In some places, the ballot amendment won’t really change abortion policy — it just affirms state law. But it could draw more voters to the polls.

The 7 Battleground States Polling Results Post Debate
Arizona Georgia Nevada Michigan North Carolina Pennsylvania Wisconsin

In other U.S. elections, candidates are elected directly by popular vote. But the president and vice president are not elected directly by citizens. Instead, they are chosen through the Electoral College process. The process of using electors comes from the Constitution . Electoral votes are allocated among the States based on the Census .Every State is allocated a number of votes equal to the number of Senators and Representatives in its U.S. Congressional delegation—two votes for its Senators in the U.S. Senate plus a number of votes equal to the number of its Congressional districts.

It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. As of today, 226 votes will likely be for the Democratic candidate and 219 votes will likely be for the Republican. Consequently, 93 electoral votes are a toss up. All States, except for Maine and Nebraska, have a winner-take-all policy where the State looks only at the overall winner of the state-wide popular vote.

September 25, 2024 – Polls change weekly, but the 7 battleground states remain the same.

Trump has a 0.5% lead in Georgia based on 31 polls. Vice President Harris holds a 1-point advantage over former President Trump among registered voters in North Carolina, according to an Elon University/YouGov poll released Tuesday, September 24th.

September 23, 2024
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump are neck-and-neck in four crucial states with 42 days to go until the election, a new poll has found.A survey of 9,794 swing state voters published September 23 by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph found that Harris and Trump were tied for support in four of these battleground states: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Vice President Harris has a small lead over former President Trump in Michigan, a new survey shows, but the results are within the margin of error.The poll, conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University, found Harris leading with 48 percent to Trump’s 45 percent. The results are within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error.

Help Democrats Regain Control of The House of Representatives

My last post, Truth is Powerful, links the Democrats of 9 competitive House races . These races are rated by Cooks Political Report UPDATED October 18 and University of Virginia Center For Politics UPDATED September 30 . Exceptions are stated in parentheses. I will update their status regularly.

Toss Up House Races
Alaska – Support Mary Peltola
Arizona 1st – Support Amish Shah
California 13th – Support Adam Gray
Maine’s 2nd – Support Jared Golden
New York’s 4th – Support Laura Gillen (CfP thinks Leans Democrat)
Pennsylvania’s 8th – Support Matt Cartwright
Washington’s 3rd – Support Marie Perez

Lean Democrat House Races – continue to support
Ohio’s 9th – Marcy Kaptur

Leans Republican House Races – continue to support
New Jersey’s 7th – Support Sue Altman


Additional House races have become more competitive since then and, are listed below. All of these House races need your support.

The races below are all TOSS UP as rated by Cooks Political Report UPDATED October 18 and University of Virginia Center For Politics UPDATED September 30 . Exceptions are stated in parentheses. I’ll update their status regularly.

Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
Democrat Kirsten Engel versus Incumbent Republican Ciscomani

California’s 22nd Congressional District
Democrat Rudy Salas versus Incumbent Republican Valadao

California’s 27th Congressional District
Democrat George Whitesides versus Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia

California’s 41st Congressional District (CfP thinks it Leans Republican)
Democrat Will Rollins versus Incumbent Republican KenCalvert

California’s 45th Congressional District
Democrat Derek Tran versus Incumbent Republican Michele Steel

Colorado’s 8th Congressional District
Incumbent Democrat Yadira Caraveo versus Republican Gave Evans

NEW Iowa 1st Congressional District (CfP thinks it Leans Republican)
Democrat Christina Bohannan versus Incumbent Republican Miller-Meeks

NEW Iowa 3rd Congressional District (CfP thinks it Leans Republican)
Democrat Lanon Baccam versus Incumbent Republican Nunn

Michigan’s 7th Congressional District, Open
Democrat Curtis Hertel versus Republican Tom Barrett

Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, Open
Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet versus Republican Paul Junge

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (CfP now thinks it Leans Democrat)
Democrat Tony Vargas versus Incumbent Republican Bacon

New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District (CfP thinks it Leans Democrat)
Incumbent Democrat Gabriel Vasquez versus Republican Yvette Herrell

New York’s 17th Congressional District (CfP thinks it Leans Republican)
Democrat Mondaire Jones versus Incumbent Republican Lawler

New York’s 19th Congressional District
Democrat Josh Riley versus Incumbent Republican Molinaro

North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
Incumbent Democrat Donald Davis versus Republican Buckshot

Ohio’s 13th Congressional District
Incumbent Democrat Emilia Sykes versus Republican Coughlin

Oregon’s 5th Congressional District
Democrat Janelle Bynum versus Incumbent Republican Cheves De Remer

Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District
Incumbent Democrat Susan Wild versus Republican Mackenzie

Virginia’s 7th Congressional District (CfP thinks it Leans Democrat)
Democrat Eugene Vindman versus Republican Anderson

The Status of the Senate Races

Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election in November, but the balance of power in the chamber will likely be decided by seven of the most competitive races, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report. Currently Democrats hold a slim majority in the Senate, with four independent senators caucusing with the party.

My last post, Truth is Powerful, provides links to these Democrats.These races are rated by Cooks Political Report UPDATED OCTOBER 21 and University of Virginia Center For Politics UPDATED September 25 . Exceptions are stated in parentheses. I will update their status regularly. These Senate races need your support.

Toss Up Senate Races
Michigan – Support Elisa Slatkin (CfP thinks Leans Democrat)
Ohio – Support Senator Brown
NEW Wisconsin – Senator Baldwin (CfP thinks Leans Democrat)
NEW Pennsylvania – Senator Casey (CfP thinks Leans Democrat)

Lean Democrat Senate Races – continue to support
Arizona – Ruben Gallego
Nevada – Senator Rosen


Lean Republican Senate Races
Montana – Support Senator Tester

Likely Democrat Senate Races – continue to support
Maryland – Angela Alsobrooks

Respond

Donate to any and all campaigns above. $5 to each campaign is more than enough.  Act Blue is a portal for the Democratic Party. There are a multitude of local fundraising drives that usually involve meeting the candidate in person or by Zoom.

Volunteer in a local campaign or a campaign in another state. This includes, but not limited to, registration drives, canvassing, phone banking, text banking, post card and letter writing

Join National Networks whose focus is on getting out the vote:
League of Women Voters
Rock The Vote

The following organizations let you decide who to communicate with: battleground state voters, a particular campaign, specific congressional races, etc. You, yourself, can organize post card and letter writing “parties”. They’re a good way to work together and network at the same time. 
Vote Forward
Postcard to Voters
Postcards to Swing States

Join National Networks whose focus is on electing local politicians:
Indivisible
Move On

NEXT POST:

2024 State Elections and Propositions

Status of the Presidential and Congressional Races

Voting Information